\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 196 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) )
Key investment points
Fuhong Hanlin: strong revenue growth in 2021, in line with expectations
Fuhong Hanhan (2696. HK), a holding subsidiary, announced its performance in 2021: it realized a revenue of 1.683 billion yuan (yoy186.3%), of which the revenue mainly came from drug sales, providing research and development services to customers and multiple drug licensing revenue. Among them, trastuzumab achieved a revenue of 868 million yuan in China, rituximab achieved a sales share revenue of 543 million yuan, and adalimumab achieved a sales share revenue of 22 million yuan. Similar to the varieties of trastuzumab and ritop, heavyweight biology showed strong growth momentum and realized a loss of 984 million yuan in 2021, which was mainly caused by maintaining a high proportion of R & D expenses in 2021 (the total R & D investment was 1.764 billion, of which 1.024 billion was expensed and 740 million was capitalized), higher sales expenses (520 million, which we expect is mainly due to the promotion of trastuzumab) and higher management expenses (281 million). It is expected that the marketing cost of trastuzumab (Q200) will be increased in 2021, and the marketing rate of trastuzumab (Q200) will remain high in 2022.
Cashing in: innovation internationalization continues to be cashed in and is optimistic about the growth from 2022 to 2023
Looking forward to 2022, the two major indications of PD-1 slolizumab (MSI-H and sqnsclc) are expected to be approved for listing, which will bring flexibility to the continued strong growth of Fuhong Hanlin’s revenue, and the differentiated indications (MSI-H) are also expected to make the company’s PD-1 products stand out. Internationalization: the company’s PD-1 Sullivan has shown obvious advantages in the interim data of es-sclc global multicenter phase III clinical trial, which also lays a good data support for the internationalization of PD-1 products. We expect to apply for overseas registration in 2022 to innovate the next city of internationalization. With the continuous and large-scale production of five commercial varieties, including rituximab, trastuzumab, Sullivan, adalimumab and bevacizumab, we are optimistic about the growth of Fuhong Hanlin from 2022 to 2023, and the elasticity of Fuhong Hanlin’s Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) income under the continuous realization of Fuhong Hanlin’s income.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1.90, 2.43 and 2.86 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023. The closing price on March 16, 2022 corresponds to 19 times of PE in 2022 (16 times of PE in 2023), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk that the review progress is less than expected; Product sales are less than expected; Market competition risk; The clinical outcome is less than the expected risk; Policy risk
