\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Main points:
Event: Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) released the annual report of 2021, and the revenue was lower than expected. On March 16, 2022, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) released the annual report of 2021, and the revenue and net profit increased negatively year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue was 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.77%. Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.87%. EPS is 62 million yuan.
Comments:
Performance spin off: the company’s performance has declined since Q2, and the expense structure is better than that in 2020.
Looking at the company’s performance in a single quarter, the company’s revenue from the first quarter to the fourth quarter was RMB 2.5/3.35/3.63/257 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / – 16% / – 25% / – 28.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.6/0.83/0.95/0.11 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% / – 36% / – 42% / – 85.6%. It can be seen that the performance of the company has declined since the second quarter, and the decline of net profit attributable to the parent company is much higher than the operating revenue. In terms of expenses, in 2021, the proportion of the company’s R & D expenses / sales expenses / financial expenses / management expenses in operating revenue was 13.04% / 37.69% / – 0.93% / 9.02% respectively, a change of -2.22 / – 2.4 / – 1.17/0.73pct compared with 2020, indicating that the expenditure structure was gradually optimized.
The performance in 2021 was lower than expected, which was mainly affected by covid-19 vaccination, increased R & D investment and provision for impairment.
The decline of the company’s performance is mainly affected by three factors: ① due to the impact of covid-19 vaccination on product promotion, the company’s revenue decreases. One of the company’s main products, nasal spray influenza vaccine, has strong seasonality, and the applicable population is 3-17 years old, which highly coincides with the key population vaccinated with covid-19 vaccine in the same period, resulting in a great impact on the sales of influenza vaccine. Only Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) doses were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 47.52%. ② The company made provision for asset impairment of 88 million yuan, which significantly reduced the net profit year-on-year. The company’s nasal spray influenza vaccine is a seasonal sales product, and the product is valid for 10 months. In 2021, the company produced 3.99 million influenza vaccines and actually sold Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) . The sales did not meet the expectations, resulting in the company withdrawing asset impairment reserves for some nasal spray influenza vaccines and expired materials, resulting in the net profit margin falling to 20.26% (- 8.75pct) when the gross profit margin of the company changed little. ③ The company’s R & D investment in all human anti rabies monoclonal antibodies and other products increased significantly, further reducing the net profit. In 2021, the company’s expensed R & D expenditure was 157 million yuan, an increase of 63 million yuan over 2020.
In 2022, the negative factors affecting the company’s performance gradually disappear, the operation returns to the right track, and the performance is expected to show high growth.
By March 2022, the whole course vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine in China has reached about 85%, the basic immunization work has been basically completed, and the vaccination of booster shots has exceeded 450 million doses. Therefore, the impact of covid-19 vaccination on other vaccines will be significantly reduced in 2022, and the volume of non immunization planning vaccines will return to fundamentals. Improve residents’ living standards, enhance vaccination awareness, and encourage key population vaccination and other industries in terms of policies β Still. Therefore, as the only manufacturer of nasal spray type live attenuated influenza vaccine in China, the company will continue to enjoy the high growth of market space brought by the low penetration rate of the influenza vaccine industry. With the rapid and large-scale dosage advantages and the low base effect in 2021, the company’s performance is expected to show high growth in 2022.
In the future, the company’s performance will be supported by the large volume of main products and the listing of heavy products under research. In the future, the company’s three main products will continue to increase market promotion + capacity expansion, contributing to the steady growth of cash flow. The liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine and herpes zoster vaccine in the company’s research products are expected to be on the market in 2023. At that time, the company’s influenza vaccine coverage will expand to people over the age of 3. It is expected that the total sales of freeze-dried + liquid influenza vaccine is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2024. The herpes zoster vaccine will benefit from the huge potential market space brought by the aging population market. It is expected that the sales volume is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2026, supporting the sustained and high growth of the company’s performance in the medium and long term.
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating
It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1777 / 2556 / 3244 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9% / 43.8% / 26.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 491 / 8.5 / 1.116 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 101.5% / 73.1% / 31.3%; The PE of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 37x / 22x / 16x respectively. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the differential advantages of the company’s nasal spray influenza vaccine, varicella vaccine and human crazy vaccine, and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products such as herpes zoster vaccine in the next few years, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk that covid-19 pneumonia may adversely affect the normal production and operation of the company; Risk of clinical trial failure; The market promotion of new products is less than expected; The approval of products is not as expected.
