\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released its annual report for 21 years. The company achieved revenue of 145538 billion yuan in 21 years, yoy + 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, yoy + 145%, of which the revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was 38.219 billion yuan, yoy + 57.92%, qoq-3.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is about 5.11 billion yuan, yoy + 8.84%, qoq-15.04%. At the same time, the company announced the dividend plan and distributed a cash dividend of 25 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 3.19%.
The company’s performance increased significantly year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the global economic recovery, the boost of market demand and the increase of chemical product prices. In addition, the company’s MDI technological transformation, ethylene and other new production capacity and new devices were put into operation, and the volume and price of major products such as polyurethane, petrochemical and fine chemicals rose simultaneously, with a significant increase in operating performance year-on-year. As a global polyurethane leader, the company continues to expand its chain and production, actively layout the Petrochemical new material industry, always maintain rapid development, ensure future performance growth, and maintain the “buy” rating.
MDI maintained a high boom, and the volume and price of polyurethane sector increased simultaneously: in 21 years, the company’s revenue of polyurethane sector reached 60.492 billion yuan, yoy + 72.75%, mainly benefiting from the volume and price increase of main products. In the 21st year, the global economy recovered and the demand for MDI improved. However, some overseas devices were affected by extreme weather and epidemic, resulting in supply shortage and imbalance between supply and demand, raising the price of MDI. The average price of polymerized MDI is 197600 yuan / ton, yoy + 37%, the average price of pure MDI is 221300 yuan / ton, yoy + 24%, and the average price of TDI is 144700 yuan / ton, yoy + 19%. In addition, Yantai MDI plant has been successfully transformed, the production capacity has been further improved, and the sales volume of polyether polyols has increased. The company enjoys the dividend of simultaneous increase in volume and price. At present, the company has an MDI capacity of 2.65 million tons and a TDI capacity of 650000 tons. It is the world’s largest MDI supplier and the world’s third largest TDI supplier. In the follow-up, the polyurethane sector will continue to bring profit support to the company and ensure the growth of the company.
The performance of the petrochemical sector increased significantly and grew into the second pillar: the company’s petrochemical sector grew rapidly, benefiting from the sharp rise in the price of petrochemical products year-on-year and the change in product structure and scale effect brought about by the production of one million tons of ethylene. The company’s million ton ethylene plant was put into operation and maintained full load operation in the first year. The production and sales of petrochemical products increased year-on-year, reaching 3.9 million tons, yoy + 74.81%. Superimposed on the rise in the price of petrochemical products in 21 years, the company’s revenue in the petrochemical sector increased rapidly, exceeding that in the polyurethane sector by 614094 billion yuan for the first time, yoy + 132.46%. With the gradual development of petrochemical and new materials sectors and the gradual increase of the proportion of revenue, the company’s whole industry layout appears, which is expected to iron the cycle and grow into a full platform chemical giant.
The expense rate decreased year-on-year, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase were effective: in 21 years, the company’s product structure was adjusted, and the gross profit margin decreased by 0.52pct year-on-year, reaching 26.26%,. In terms of expenses, the company’s cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures were effective, and the three expense rates decreased year-on-year, of which the sales expense decreased by 3.28pct to 0.72%, the management expense rate decreased by 0.63pct to 1.30%, and the financial expense decreased by 0.45pct to 1.02%.
Deepen the layout of new material industry and ensure long-term growth: in 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 15.464 billion yuan, yoy + 94.57%, and sales volume of 760000 tons, yoy + 37.01%, mainly due to the growth of sales volume of ADI, waterborne resin and TPU business and the rise of prices of fine chemical products and related raw materials. The company continued to invest in new materials, including carbon neutral technology, recycling and utilization of polyurethane foam, degradable materials and key monomer, high-performance materials (nylon 12, special PC, POE, optical grade PMMA, etc.), new energy storage and battery materials, separation and purification and other R & D projects. It is expected to grow from MDI leader to comprehensive chemical leader in the future. With the improvement of industrial chain layout and the increase of product types, the ironing cycle is expected. The company has broad prospects and can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast: according to our revised profit forecast, the net profit of the company in the year of 22 / 23 / 24 is expected to be 25.9/27.3/29.1 billion yuan, yoy + 5% / + 5% / + 6%, corresponding to EPS of 8.26/8.70/9.26 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to A-share price is 9 / 9 / 8 times. Considering the sufficient growth momentum of the company, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The production of new projects is not as expected.
