\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 1.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%.
Nasal spray influenza vaccine is affected by covid-19 vaccination and is expected to recover significantly in 2022. Quarter by quarter, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.5 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86.2%. In terms of products, 1) nasal spray influenza vaccine: in 2021, the revenue was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5%, and the sales of People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) pieces were confirmed, which was mainly due to the conflict with influenza vaccination when covid-19 vaccination age was released to 3-17 years old during the influenza vaccination season, as well as the intensification of market competition among many influenza vaccine manufacturers in recent years, which affected the sales of influenza vaccine, and the provision for inventory impairment was 86.39 million yuan, We expect that the sales of nasal spray influenza vaccine is expected to recover significantly in 2022; 2) Varicella vaccine: in 2021, the revenue was 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, mainly affected by covid-19 vaccination. In addition, the company’s R & D expenses in 2021 increased by 63.39 million yuan compared with 2020.
The herpes zoster vaccine will be available soon. In terms of product pipeline, the phase III clinical site work of herpes zoster vaccine has been successfully completed and the application for production has been actively promoted. At present, the work related to the application for production of the vaccine is being carried out in an orderly manner. We expect that the product may be approved for listing in early 2023; The phase I clinical trial of DPT vaccine (three components) was started; Nasal spray of live attenuated influenza vaccine (liquid preparation) has obtained clinical approval and started phase I clinical trial. The company’s R & D pipeline is constantly enriched.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We expect that the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.9/7.4/1 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37 / 25 / 18 times respectively. Considering the large market space of influenza vaccine and the upcoming realization of herpes zoster vaccine, we maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; The risk that the R & D or production report is not as expected; Product sales were lower than expected.
