\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 10.75 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) performance has been dragged down and R & D expenditure has increased. From the perspective of subsidiaries: 1) kinsay pharmaceutical: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, a net profit attributable to its parent company of 3.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, and a revenue of 2.04 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of 31%, mainly due to the sporadic impact of the epidemic at the end of 2021, and a net profit attributable to its parent company of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, mainly due to more R & D expenses confirmed in 2021q4, In 2021 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) confirmed R & D expenses of RMB 880 million, with a year-on-year increase of 86.4%. The company’s new problems and net sales have maintained rapid growth, and the follow-up will focus on the sales of water needles after the implementation of Guangdong centralized purchase policy; 2) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) : revenue of 1.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%. Covid-19 vaccination mainly affected influenza vaccination, which is expected to recover significantly in 2022; 3) Huakang pharmaceutical: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 43 million yuan, basically the same as that in 2020; 4) High tech real estate: in 21 years, the revenue was 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 86 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%.
Growth hormone is collected and landed, and the overall impact is limited. In terms of centralized procurement in Guangdong, the price reduction of powder injection growth hormone is in line with our expectations. Considering that the proportion of powder injection growth hormone in kinsay pharmaceutical industry is very small, it is expected to have little impact on the overall performance. In terms of water injection growth hormone, at present, Kinsey pharmaceutical, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) and Novo Nordisk have not won the bid, and the price remains unchanged. It is expected that they will be gradually transferred to out of hospital sales in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Considering that the current penetration rate of growth hormone is still low and the company has rich growth hormone product pipelines, we expect the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 4.95/62.5/7.77 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14 / 11 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; Product sales are less than expected; The risk of policy exceeding expectations.
