\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting stressed the need to keep the economy running within a reasonable range, keep the capital market running smoothly, and actively introduce policies conducive to the market. Under the policy background of steady growth, the development of infrastructure is stable. Figma's ban on Xinjiang puts forward higher requirements for China's domestic substitution process, and is expected to drive the increase in the demand for relevant domestic substitution software. Under the background of steady growth and accelerated domestic substitution process, the company is expected to benefit and maintain the buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
Steady growth and drive the growth of construction informatization enterprises. On January 19, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for the development of construction industry (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"), which requires to significantly improve the level of building industrialization, digitization and intellectualization, and accelerate the coordinated development of intelligent construction and new building industrialization. With the support of policies related to steady growth and building digital transformation, the company, as the leader of building information enterprises, is expected to benefit significantly.
The demand for localization of modeling and design tool software is urgent. On March 12, figma, an American UI design tool company, announced the closure of Dajiang enterprise accounts. In recent years, the US technology blockade has put forward higher requirements for China's independent control. Domestic industrial software should break the monopoly of foreign products and create independent core advantages. In the field of building informatization, most CAD products are monopolized by Autodesk, PTC, Siemens and other companies. The acceleration of domestic substitution process is expected to drive the rise of the company's purchase demand for relevant products.
The performance grew rapidly and the cooperation territory expanded further. The performance forecast of the company in 2021 shows that the main business income of the company grows rapidly, including: the income of digital cost business grows steadily; The revenue of digital construction business increased rapidly. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 650700 million yuan (+ 96.74% - 111.87%), and the net profit deducted from non parent company is expected to be 620670 million yuan (+ 106.32% - 122.90%). The company is progressing smoothly in terms of customers. In February, it reached cooperation agreements with CSCEC Strait and remote cable, and its performance is expected to continue to improve.
Valuation
The adjusted net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 667, 915 and 1208 million yuan, EPS is 0.56, 0.77 and 1.02 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 82x, 60x and 45x. The leading position of the company is stable and the buy rating is maintained.
Main risks of rating
The implementation of the policy is less than expected; Technological breakthrough is less than expected; The growth rate of performance was lower than expected.
