\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Events
1) on March 14, the company announced that it won the bid of Jingke energy Shangrao project, with a bid winning amount of 140 million yuan;
2) on March 9, the company announced that it had won the bid for the project of jingaosun, with a bid winning amount of 90 million yuan;
3) on February 23, the company announced the draft restricted stock incentive plan, which plans to grant 950000 restricted shares to 850 objects. The unlocking condition is that the growth rate of net profit deducted (excluding share based payment) from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 50%, 100% and 150% respectively.
Key investment points
Successive successful component factory projects with sufficient orders on hand
The company successively announced the bid winning orders of leading component manufacturers. From January to September 2021, the company signed new orders of 2.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, of which 1 billion yuan was newly signed from July to September. As of September 30, 2021, the company’s orders on hand were 3.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the company has successively announced the bid winning of several component manufacturer projects. The orders on hand are sufficient, and the large-scale renewal starts from the quarter of 2020, Large scale iteration accelerates the upgrading of series welding machines. The company has a solid leading position in the field of series welding machines. On the one hand, it continues to benefit from the capacity expansion driven by photovoltaic demand, and on the other hand, it benefits from the iterative updating of large-scale components.
Equity incentive covers a wide range, and the incentive target is raised
The company plans to cover 850 people in this equity incentive, accounting for about 38.64% of the total number of the company. The performance unlocking condition is that the net profit deducted from non parent (excluding share based payment) from 2022 to 2024 is about 480 million yuan, 640 million yuan and 800 million yuan respectively. The equity incentive scheme distributed by the company in September 2021 covers 471 people, and the performance unlocking conditions are that the net profit deducted from non parent company (excluding share based payment) from 2022 to 2024 is about 380 million yuan, 530 million yuan and 640 million yuan respectively. The coverage and performance unlocking conditions of this equity incentive have been improved, and the increase of incentive objectives reflects the company’s confidence in its own development.
Layout TOPCON, semiconductor, lithium battery, single crystal furnace equipment and other links to build a platform company
The company plans to issue shares to specific objects to raise funds for the R & D and industrialization of high-end intelligent equipment. The main direction of this project is to develop and apply n-type TOPCON battery equipment, semiconductor packaging and testing equipment and lithium battery equipment, and industrialize them.
TOPCON battery equipment: the company plans to develop and industrialize TOPCON boron diffusion equipment and LPCVD equipment. TOPCON is highly compatible with the existing production lines and continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency. At present, it has reached the critical point of large-scale industrialization. The company is expected to cut into this field and benefit directly.
Semiconductor packaging equipment: the company’s bonding machine equipment has a high yield of verification at the client. The equipment used in the sealing and testing link of the semiconductor industry, aluminum wire bonding machine, has been verified at the client and has obtained a sales order. The company will use the first mover advantage of domestic aluminum wire bonding machine to cut into the extension of core equipment in the field of semiconductor packaging and testing.
Lithium battery equipment: the company’s lithium battery equipment is mainly engaged in pack module equipment. At present, it has won the bid for the 130 million yuan project of honeycomb energy technology production line.
Monocrystal furnace: the company increased its capital to hold Matsushita, and obtained small batch orders from leading customers in the first and second half of 2021. In March 2021, Matsushita’s monocrystal furnace produced the first n-type 12 inch crystal rod in yuzela, and then obtained 140 million orders from Yuze, reflecting customers’ recognition of the company’s products.
Profit forecast
Regardless of the impact of the company’s issuance of shares to specific objects to raise funds, it is predicted that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.05, 3.03 and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 3.60, 5.26 and 7.04 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 55, 38 and 28 times of PE respectively. It is covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
The demand and capacity expansion of photovoltaic industry are less than expected; The progress of issuing shares to specific objects and raising funds is less than expected; The project progress is less than expected; Market systemic risk.
