\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event: on March 16, 2022, the company issued several announcements involving the business layout in the photovoltaic field. The details are as follows: 1) it is proposed to invest in the construction of two 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines in Sabah, Malaysia, and to build a supporting production line with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of ultra silica sand; 2) It is proposed to increase the capital of Chenzhou photovoltaic with its own funds to ensure the construction funds of photovoltaic projects; 3) The company transferred 100% equity of "Zixing placer mine" (super white sand) to Chenzhou photovoltaic; 4) 492 million yuan was invested to build the roof distributed photovoltaic power station project.
The continuous expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity shows the determination to deeply cultivate the photovoltaic field: according to the company's previous announcement, five 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines have been built in China and are expected to be put into operation in 2022. This time, after the company plans to build two 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines in Malaysia, the production capacity will reach 8400t / D (the ultra white floating production line of photovoltaic products is not considered). In addition, the company began to use its own plant roof resources to accelerate the expansion to the field of downstream photovoltaic power plants.
Photovoltaic glass upstarts are expected to take the lead in cost advantage: as the leader of float glass in China, the company still has cost advantage in entering the field of photovoltaic glass. 1. The scale of kilns invested and built by the company is 1200t / D, which has the advantages of low energy consumption, low amortization and high yield; 2. It can adapt to larger components and has upgrade space; 3. Raw material procurement can be coordinated with architectural float glass, which has the advantage of centralized procurement; 4. Have sufficient funds to obtain ultra white silica sand resources and improve the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials. Therefore, we believe that with the gradual implementation of the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity, it is expected to be among the first echelon of the industry in the future.
Accelerate the acquisition of ultra white quartz sand resources and cooperate with the production capacity of photovoltaic glass: the production of ultra white glass requires ultra white quartz sand as raw material, which is a scarce resource and less distributed in China Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) in recent years, it is still actively exploring ultra white quartz sand resources outside China. In the future, with the investment and construction of new production lines, there may be more supporting ultra white quartz sand resources. The Zixing ultra white placer mine built by the company has a design annual production capacity of 576000 tons and the ultra white quartz sand base in Sabah, Malaysia has an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons, which greatly improves the company's comprehensive competitiveness and ensures the sand demand and safety of its subordinate ultra white glass production line.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic that the growth rate at the completion end of real estate will pick up in 22 years, the risk of uncompleted and delayed delivery under the guidance of policies will be greatly reduced, and the demand for glass has strong toughness and elasticity. Overall, the subsequent float glass industry is still expected to return to high prosperity. We continue to firmly recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , which is not only the catalyst of the expected rise in glass prices, but also attaches more importance to the long-term growth attribute of the enterprise, especially the predictable expansion of photovoltaic field. The company is building and planning seven photovoltaic glass production lines. If the single line operation quality put into operation in 22 years proves to be the leader in the standard industry, it is expected to gradually rank among the first echelon of the industry in the future. In addition, the company continues to expand its business in energy conservation, electronics, medical glass and other aspects. The above fields are growth tracks. We maintain the company's EPS of 1.58, 1.59 and 1.61 yuan in 21-23 years respectively, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the progress of ultra white float glass application in photovoltaic field is less than expected, the recovery of float glass price is less than expected, the cost pressure of raw and fuel materials is increased, the promotion of new projects is less than expected, and the expansion of new business is less than expected.
