\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
1. The management has unique strategic vision, timely measures, accurate grasp of the industry pattern and flexible response, so as to achieve the company's catching up from behind
Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , which was born in 1999, started late, but its management successfully caught up with the rest of the world by accurately grasping the industry pattern, cutting into the diamond inlaid segment product track and sinking the market. At present, it has developed into a leading brand in the national mainstream jewelry market, and the company's performance maintained a double-digit annualized growth from 2012 to 2020. In recent years, great changes have taken place in consumption habits and consumption environment, and the prosperity of categories has developed differently. Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) actively responded to challenges, and the management's enterprising advantage has been highlighted again. It is expected to achieve brilliant development in the future by making full use of gold products, expanding product lines, and exploring new online channels, situational jewelry or customized zhubao new models.
2. Channel brands feed each other, channel expansion is the primary strategy for current development, and the brand effect is gradually enhanced. Companies that promote the enclosure of horse racing and brand building at the same time can stand out.
1) it is the core pursuit of jewelry enterprises to build long-term barriers by reducing selection costs and providing identity value.
2) channels and brands complement each other. Opening a store first can occupy the core position of the blank market first, and it is less difficult to achieve good operation and stable profitability. After the store is large, its attraction to franchisees and consumers is enhanced, and the brand strength is also enhanced. Then, the profit side and cost side of franchise stores will fully benefit from higher brand strength, and the better investment return of leading brands will attract more franchisees and promote the further expansion of channels.
3) China's jewelry market is still in the stage of scale competition of channel expansion, but the brand potential is becoming stronger and stronger in the future. China mainly focuses on gold products and jewelry brands positioning the public. There is little difference between early products and brands. It mainly establishes the first mover advantage through channel expansion. After years of channel expansion, the preliminary layout of the Chinese market has been completed, and the blank market dividend is no longer, entering the second half of channel expansion. The head brand relies on the feedback of brand strength, the expansion advantage is more prominent, forming a virtuous circle, and the strong is always strong.
3. Channel expansion: the short-term and medium-term provincial generation has brought secondary growth, and the expansion of offline stores and the acceleration of gold sales have been made
1) offline: the single store performed well. After introducing the provincial generation model, the channel expansion returned to the fast lane. The single franchise store has good profitability and strong stability, and has strong attraction to franchisees. The implementation of the provincial agent model in the second half of 2021 is the fourth resource integration of the company. The provincial agent undertakes the tasks of opening stores and gold sales. By integrating high-quality franchisee resources, the expansion of stores and gold shipments are expected to increase significantly. It is expected that there will be about 7 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 potential stores in the future.
2) online: differentiated products achieve collaborative development, and live broadcasting leads the new business form of digital marketing. The company has maintained a keen perception of Internet changes, continued to increase the layout of e-commerce, took the lead in entering the live broadcast of e-commerce and digital marketing, maintained an increase in e-commerce channel revenue year by year, and the channel growth rate is leading in the industry.
4. Brand building: pay equal attention to products and operation, the brand value is rising year by year, the premium ability has been preliminarily reflected, and the long-term price increase can be expected
Product is the foundation of brand existence, and operation is the key to brand survival. In terms of products, we adhere to the high-quality line of paying equal attention to process and quality, introduce the situational distribution model, realize the accurate matching of product supply and demand, and stimulate brand strength with product strength. In terms of operation, promote all-round marketing, efficient operation and high-quality service, effectively improve consumers' consumption experience, create a stronger brand connection with consumers, and realize stronger vitality of the brand. At present, the improvement of the company's brand strength has been preliminarily reflected. In 2021, the brand use fee will be increased from 3-8 yuan to 12 yuan, but the pricing is still at a low level in the industry. With the gradual improvement of brand strength, the price increase can be expected in the future.
5 investment suggestions and risk tips
The company has a national chain channel network. In recent years, it has steadily promoted channel expansion. The channel first mover advantage of low-line cities is remarkable, and it has created high-yield product and brand strength with high-quality products and efficient operation. At present, the industry has entered the second half of channel expansion. The company has introduced the provincial generation model, and the channel expansion has returned to the fast lane. Under the logic of mutual feeding of channel brands, the brand penetration and market competitiveness will be further improved, and it is expected to achieve high performance growth. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize an operating revenue of RMB 9.155/16.057/19.626 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.228/14.96/1.790 billion, corresponding to 12.46/10.23/8.55xpe. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the recovery rhythm of the industry; Store expansion speed is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The effect of sub brand integration is less than expected; Risk of insufficient store control affecting brand reputation; Chinese mainland market is not completely comparable to the Hongkong market in China, and the relevant data are for reference only.
