\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 128 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) )
Event:
On March 16, 2022, Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) and Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and zhidu investment signed an agreement of intent on establishing an international cargo airline through joint venture. It is proposed to establish a joint venture airline, give full play to the advantages of resource integration of all parties, and meet the logistics needs of customers and markets through the operation of aviation logistics warehousing, transportation, international freight forwarding and other businesses.
Key investment points:
Set up international cargo airlines to jointly improve the control of full link resources
On March 16, 2022, Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) and Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and zhidu investment plan to establish Guangdong Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) Aviation Co., Ltd. in a joint venture. The registered capital of the joint venture is 500 million yuan, of which the registered capital of Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and zhidu investment is 275 million yuan, 200 million yuan and 25 million yuan respectively, accounting for 55%, 40% and 5% respectively. The airline will work with the shareholders of the three parties to build a 500000 square meter main hub center of “Dawan District Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) air cargo warehouse” in Guangzhou. Its functions include international air cargo and mail handling, warehousing, transshipment, unpacking, packing, centralized transportation, distribution, customs declaration, special cargo handling, etc., as well as the construction of “Guangdong Hong Kong cross-border cargo warehouse building”, radiating the inbound and outbound goods of Dawan district airport cluster.
The establishment of joint venture Cargo Airlines has not only helped China trade obtain scarce license resources (at present, China has only 11 air cargo licenses), but also further deepened the control ability of trunk resources of China trade’s air freight forwarding business. The strong alliance with Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) enables China trade to continuously improve the resource control of the whole link of cross-border logistics. Whether it is traditional freight forwarders or cross-border e-commerce logistics, China trade has built an independent and controllable full link cross-border logistics system through mergers and acquisitions (Shenzhen foundation + Jiacheng International) and the establishment of cooperative relations ( Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) + Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) ).
The upgrading of business model resonates with the improvement of customer structure, and the performance of China trade is expected to be released continuously
With the enhanced control of the whole link resources, Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) is expected to further lengthen its service chain in traditional freight forwarding and cross-border e-commerce logistics. The increase of service links is expected to improve the revenue capacity of China trade, transform from a simple agent booking space to a cross-border logistics service provider, and upgrade its business model. In addition, the strong alliance with Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and the recent strategic cooperation with China Post have widened the customer acquisition channels of China trade, which is expected to further improve the cross-border logistics volume of China Trade and effectively reduce costs. At the same time, the increase of direct customers can once again enhance the profitability of cross-border logistics business.
Recently, the prosperity of the air freight market has rebounded. From the air freight rate index, the Shanghai line freight rate index increased by 30.4% month on month on March 14. In the whole year, the air freight rate is expected to remain high and volatile. Under the condition of maintaining the stability of freight rate, the traffic volume is expected to be released gradually. Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) can carry out cross-border logistics business more effectively with the accumulated full link service resources, increase the price stability and increase the performance of China trade.
From cycle to growth, we are optimistic about the scarce target of cross-border e-commerce logistics Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) for a long time
With the continuous promotion of the integration of Jiacheng international and Shenzhen foundation and the gradual deepening of the cooperation with Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) , Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) China trade has preliminarily completed the construction of the cross-border logistics whole link system and realized the layout of the whole link. In terms of business, with the extension of the industrial chain, the traditional business is expected to achieve a comprehensive transformation from agent booking to multi link service provider. The increase of service links is expected to further improve the proportion of direct customers and enhance the profitability of traditional business; With the continuous release of dividends from the cross-border e-commerce logistics track, China trade is expected to build a first-class competitive strength of cross-border e-commerce logistics with the control of resources in the whole process, which is expected to eventually stand out in the cross-border e-commerce logistics track, promote the development of both volume and price of the company, realize the logical switch from cycle to growth, and open the growth space of profit and valuation of China trade.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the operating revenue of Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) 20212023 will be 22.958 billion yuan, 24.316 billion yuan and 25.963 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 893 million yuan, 1.192 billion yuan and 1.555 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 16.68 million yuan, 12.49 million yuan and 9.57 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics is less than expected, the risks caused by the uncertainty of overseas cross-border e-commerce policies, the risks caused by the instability of international trade situation, the synergy effect of M & A enterprises is less than expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, intensified industry competition, air and sea disasters and other black swan events
