\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 01 Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) )
The company released its annual report for 2021 on March 16. In 2021, the annual revenue was 36.34 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The transfer of capacity indicators has thickened the company's profits.
Key points supporting rating
The profit of 21q4 increased significantly year-on-year, and the revenue was generally stable: Q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 10.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% and a month on month increase of 2.5%; Q4 achieved a profit of 989 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% year-on-year and 66.8% month on month. In the fourth quarter, the company's profit performance far exceeded that of the same period in history, mainly because the transfer of the company's production capacity index brought 278 million yuan of non recurring profit and loss items, which thickened the profit. After deducting this part of the impact, the fourth quarter was basically flat year-on-year, with an increase of only 2.2%.
Cement and clinker sales fell by 7% in total: in 2021, the company sold 89.89 million tons of cement and 9.83 million tons of clinker, with a total sales decline of 7%. We estimate that the unit price per ton of cement and clinker in 2021 will be 323.7 yuan / ton and 289.7 yuan / ton respectively; The cost is 237.9 yuan / ton and 224.2 yuan / ton respectively. The gross profit margins of cement and clinker of the company were 27.0% and 22.6% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7pct and 5.7pct respectively. The main reason is that the cement demand fluctuates greatly in 2021, and the coal price increases greatly.
In 2022, the company has a lot to watch: at the end of 2021, the company completely completed the asset restructuring, and the minority shareholders' equity of the company decreased significantly in 2022, corresponding to a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company. After straightening out the ownership structure of the company, the governance is expected to be further improved. China's economy is under great downward pressure. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment reached 8.6%, reflecting that steady growth is gradually exerting force, and the annual cement demand is expected to continue to improve. The price of winter storage in North China is relatively high and has dropped slightly in the beginning of spring. At present, it has shown resilience, showing a steady growth trend, and showing performance elasticity compared with the same period of previous years.
Valuation
The company's performance is in line with expectations, and we slightly adjust the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 40.77 billion yuan, 43.4 billion yuan and 45.74 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.17 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan and 6.59 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.95 yuan, 2.27 yuan and 2.48 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Coal prices continued to rise, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was lower than expected, and real estate construction continued to be depressed
