\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 515 Jinzi Ham Co.Ltd(002515) )
The short-term performance is under pressure, the long-term view is on the coordinated development of multiple businesses, and the "overweight" rating is maintained
The company achieved a total revenue of 506 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 105 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 14 million yuan. At present, the company has formed an operation mode with strong internal synergy, such as customized brand meat, ham and characteristic meat products. Due to the loss of brand meat business, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 1.0 (- 0.6), 140 (- 0.9) and 200 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.11, 0.14 and 0.21 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 45.7, 34.2 and 23.2 times of PE. With the release of production capacity, the improvement of channel layout and the diversification of consumption scenarios, the company is still in a period of rapid development and maintains the "overweight" rating.
The decline in revenue was mainly due to the large decline in brand meat business
The decline in revenue in 2021q4 was mainly due to the large decline in brand meat business. In 2021, the company's ham business continued to grow steadily: (1) from the perspective of products: in 2021, the ham revenue increased by 37.3% year-on-year to 183 million yuan; Traditional meat products fell 15.7% year-on-year to 98.33 million yuan; Brand meat fell 57.9% year-on-year to 178 million yuan. The ton price of brand meat products decreased due to the decline of pig price, resulting in losses in brand meat business; The ham business is still growing steadily with the expansion of channels. (2) In terms of sub channels, the company's online channels and Ka distribution channels grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and 32.3% respectively in 2021; Hotel catering, food processing and direct marketing (group purchase) channels all declined. Looking forward to 2022, the pig cycle may meet the inflection point, and at present, the company's high price meat inventory is low, and the brand meat business may be improved.
The performance pressure is mainly due to the large loss of brand meat business
2021q4's profit decline was mainly due to the large loss of brand meat, the increase of e-commerce flow fee and the increase of employee salary. Throughout the year, affected by the decline of pig price and high price of stored meat, the gross profit margin of ham, special meat products and brand meat decreased by 4.67, 11.6 and 22.2pct respectively in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, with the inflection point of pig price and the company's low-cost reserve of raw materials, the gross profit margin of each business may be improved; The rate is expected to remain high during the promotion of new products. In the future, with the release of production capacity, the improvement of brand meat business and the enhancement of multi business synergy, the development potential of the company is still large.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
