\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.30%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 3.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 3.742 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 26.76%. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, performance grew steadily, and new product R & D accelerated: from the perspective of molecular companies: 1) kinsay pharmaceutical: in 2021, the revenue was 8.198 billion yuan (year-on-year + 41.27%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.684 billion yuan (year-on-year + 33.48%). In 2022, we expect: ① new patients will grow rapidly, continue to improve market penetration, and the proportion of long-term growth hormone revenue will further increase. ② Indications such as idiopathic short stature (ISS) and Prader Willi syndrome (PWS) have been included in the list of priority reviewed varieties by the State Food and Drug Administration and are expected to be approved in 2022. ③ With a certain breakthrough in the adult indications of growth hormone, it will break the original ceiling of market space and become an important growth point of the company. 2) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) : in 2021, the revenue was 1.202 billion yuan (year-on-year - 16.12%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 million yuan (year-on-year - 40.34%). The decline in performance was mainly affected by covid-19 epidemic. In addition, the clinical research of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine has been completed, and the large amount is worth looking forward to; 3) Huakang pharmaceutical: in 2021, the revenue was 642 million yuan (year-on-year + 10.12%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan (year-on-year + 2.38%). 4) High tech real estate: in 2021, the income was 663 million yuan (year-on-year - 8.55%), and the net profit attributable to the parent was 86 million yuan (year-on-year - 37.23%).
Guangdong alliance centralized mining major uncertainties landed, and the water needle price system was stable. At 22:00 p.m. on March 10, 2022, the results of the proposed selection of centralized procurement of Guangdong Union were publicized: Kinsey and Anke gave up the bidding for growth kinetin water needle, Novo Nordisk's water needle was also not selected, and the price system of water needle was not affected. It is expected that the price system of short-term growth hormone water injection is stable, mainly due to insufficient product competition, relatively low proportion of medical insurance expenses, the main market outside the hospital, and the convenience and compliance of patients are significantly different from powder injection. In addition, long-term growth hormone products have a good pattern and obvious advantages, which can quickly iterate short-term products and reduce the impact of centralized mining.
Strong certainty of growth hormone volume and sufficient confidence of the company: 1) growth hormone: considering China's huge applicable population, low penetration rate and expansion of indications, it is expected that the new cases of growth hormone will continue to grow high in 2022. In the future, the adult indications of growth hormone are approved and are expected to break through the ceiling. 2) On January 21, 2022, the company issued an announcement to complete the share repurchase, demonstrating its confidence in future development.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the impact of the epidemic and policies on the performance, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 5.382 and 6.546 billion yuan to 4.858 and 6.239 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 7.72 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to 15, 11 and 9 times of PE in 20222024, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the volume of growth hormone is lower than expected, and the centralized collection of growth hormone is higher than expected.
