Core views and investment suggestions
Duty free industry: the internal growth power of the industry remains unchanged, and the leading core competitiveness still exists. It is optimistic about the vigorous development ability of the industry after the epidemic situation is controlled. Although the repeated epidemic has brought pressure to the recovery of the industry, in the environment of consumption upgrading, the medium and long-term development of tourism and the return of China’s luxury consumption demand have become the internal driving force for the continuous recovery and growth of the duty-free industry in the future. In addition, the scarcity of licenses in the duty-free industry has built industry barriers for leading companies to help them gain advantages in the future market competition. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) as a tax-free leader in China and even the world, it has a full license tax-free business scope and obvious competitive advantage. Under the favorable conditions of the industry with increasing tax exemption policies, the implementation of Meilan phase II project, Sanya International duty-free city and Sanya No. 2 land will become the catalyst for the company’s performance growth, and the company’s future growth can be expected. We are optimistic about the bright performance of duty-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in terms of performance in the future.
Hotel Industry: under the influence of the epidemic, travel restrictions have led to a significant reduction in the overall scale of the hotel industry and the overall supply of the hotel industry, while individual hotels have poor anti risk ability and a large proportion of market withdrawal. With the control of the epidemic situation in China and the enhancement of the epidemic prevention and control ability in various regions, the number of tourist trips and traffic passenger volume have improved, and the demand side of the hotel industry has a good recovery prospect. Under the joint action of demand side consumption upgrading and supply side seeking their own growth, the upgrading trend of hotel industry structure is obvious. At the same time, the clearing of single hotels also promotes the chain development of the industry. Leading hotel group has gained a favorable position in the changes of the industry with its brand, scale and management advantages. In the future, with the development of industry chain and the continuous opening of overseas exposure of leading hotel groups, the market share of leading enterprises is expected to grow further. We are optimistic about Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) and Huazhu hotels.
Catering and tourism industry: in the first half of 2021, the recovery rhythm of the catering industry is stable and the development trend is good. In the second half of 2021, the epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the demand for Hall food is affected, resulting in a short-term weakness in the industry. At the same time, the accelerated expansion of stores of some companies has led to the reduction of their management and operation efficiency. We should pay attention to the expansion and operation performance of leading catering enterprises at the same time. The short-term impact of the epidemic does not change the long-term growth logic of the industry. We are optimistic about the good prospects of the industry under the general trend of increasing chain rate and consumption upgrading. The catering industry suggests paying attention to catering leaders such as Haidilao and Xiabu. In terms of the tourism industry, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the tourism recovery is more twists and turns. With the stable epidemic situation and the normalization of epidemic prevention measures, the industry is expected to achieve recovery and further development with the continuous expansion of the demand side. Focus on relevant leading targets with stable operation and management, rich industrial chain resources, R & D advantages of subdivided products and high long-term growth value, such as Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) .
Risk statement
Tip 1: repeated epidemic impact;
Tip 2: macroeconomic fluctuations;
Tip 3: policy supervision risk.
