In the context of double carbon, the wind power industry has ushered in long-term growth: with the deepening of the whole society’s understanding of clean energy, the policy problems, technical and other economic problems, land and other resource problems faced by the development of wind power in China will be gradually solved; Similar to the development of photovoltaic, under the constraints of power grid consumption and natural resources, wind power, as a new energy that has achieved parity, will usher in long-term growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period from the perspective of demand and economy.
Under the background of parity, the competitiveness of the wind power industry has increased rapidly: stimulated by policies and parity, on the one hand, the price of wind turbines has decreased significantly, on the other hand, new technologies such as large-scale wind turbines have been upgraded rapidly. In the short term, the profitability of China’s wind power projects has been guaranteed, and the industry demand has warmed up rapidly; In the long run, this will also improve the global competitiveness of the whole wind power industry chain. China’s wind turbine manufacturing industry will become the leading force in the global market like photovoltaic in the future.
Under the industry reform, the whole machine leads the technology cost reduction: under the pressure of industry parity and competition, the technology iteration and cost reduction speed of the whole machine are much faster than expected: in the short term, the industry demand is picking up quickly, but the whole machine is still facing great cost reduction pressure; In the long run, considering that the wind power industry attaches great importance to product quality, the weight of non price factors such as brand, technology, quality and service will be higher and higher. On the one hand, the long-term profitability of the whole machine is expected to be continuously improved, on the other hand, pay attention to the possible changes in the whole machine pattern in the industry reform.
The profitability of parts and components will rebound from the bottom, focusing on technological changes and Capacity Upgrading: in the short term, with the improvement of supply and demand and the beginning of a new round of price negotiation at the end of the year, the profitability of parts and components will improve, and the fluctuation of upstream raw material prices may determine the extent of improvement; In the long run, under the trend of large-scale technological change and “offshore” and “overseas”, parts enterprises with leading technology, high-quality capacity layout and cost advantages will usher in long-term development.
Investment suggestions: (1) pay attention to the import substitution, export and profit improvement of parts: Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (2) Pay attention to the pattern change of the whole machine link and the improvement of the industry boom: Sany Heavy energy (IPO), Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ; (3) Pay attention to the beneficiary objects related to offshore wind power: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Haili wind power, etc.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The policy was less than expected.
