Banking stocks: the industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 0.89%, 0.28% and – 4.58% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 25th, 23rd and 20th among the 28 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the stock prices of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) increased by 1.32%, 0.91% and 0.87% respectively. On a monthly basis, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) share prices rose by 7.05%, 6.01% and 5.72% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply responds to the rise of inter-bank market interest rate at the end of the month
The total amount of money put in this week was 655 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 55 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 600 billion yuan, an increase of 550 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the net monetary investment has reached 300 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate increased.
On December 31, dr007 was 2.50%, an increase of 90bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 2.05%, an increase of 35bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.21%, up 32bps compared with last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.48%, an increase of 19bps compared with last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m and 3M interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificates of deposit was the same as last Friday. On December 31, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.68%, 2.82% and 2.94% respectively. Compared with last Friday, the changes were – 13bps, – 2bps and flat respectively.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds widened and the term interest spread of US bonds narrowed
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term interest spread expanded. On December 31, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.24% and 2.78% respectively, with changes of – 10bps and – 5bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.53%, up 5bps from last Friday.
This week, 1y and 10Y US bond yields rose, and the term spread narrowed. On December 31, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.39% and 1.52% respectively, with changes of + 8bps and + 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.13%, down 6bps from last Friday.
U.S. liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises decreased, and the yield of tips decreased
(1) On December 30, the U.S. secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, unchanged from last Thursday; (2) On December 8, the latest interest rate of 3maa US non-financial notes was 0.14%; (3) On December 30, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.09%, down 3bps compared with last Thursday; (4) On December 31, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 1.04%, down 7bps from last Thursday.
Investment advice
Bank stocks ended the last week of 2021 in the shock, and the continuous decline of credit data led to no obvious year-end market in bank stocks. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus, and it is difficult to determine the subject structure of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the incremental credit structure since 2019, it can be seen that the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased. In addition, small and micro loans are the policy support of the state.
We recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk statement
The macro economy went down more than expected.
