Net money supply increased significantly. In terms of open market operation, the net monetary investment of the central bank in the current period (12.27-12.31) was 600 billion yuan, an increase of 550 billion yuan compared with the previous period (12.20-12.24), and the net monetary investment increased significantly. Among them, 655 billion yuan was put in and 55 billion yuan was withdrawn.
The net financing amount of real estate credit bonds in this period is negative. The issuance of real estate credit bonds in the current period (12.25-1.31) was 2.904 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.74 billion yuan compared with the previous period (12.18-12.24); The net financing amount was -6.605 billion yuan, a decrease of 202 million yuan compared with the previous period.
In the current period, the net financing amount of local government bonds increased and the net financing amount of urban investment bonds decreased. The issuance of local government bonds in the current period (12.25-12.31) reached 18.998 billion yuan, an increase of 8.765 billion yuan over the previous period (12.18-12.24); The net financing amount was 18.58 billion yuan, an increase of 8.347 billion yuan over the previous period. The issuance of urban investment bonds in this period reached 38.213 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.652 billion yuan compared with the previous period, and the net financing amount was 32.729 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.931 billion yuan compared with the previous period.
Continuous conversion of two direct tools
On January 1, 2022, the people’s Bank of China issued a notice saying that two direct tools will be implemented from now on. 1) Convert the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool into Pratt & Whitney small and micro loan support tool. From 2022 to the end of June 2023, the people’s Bank of China will provide funds according to 1% of the incremental balance of inclusive small and micro loans of local corporate banks, which will be operated quarterly. 2) Integrate the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan into the re loan management of agricultural support. The 400 billion yuan refinancing line originally used to support Pratt & Whitney small and micro credit loans can be used on a rolling basis, and the refinancing line can be further increased if necessary.
What do you think of the conversion of the two tools
In the two instruments, the original policy of deferred repayment of principal and interest of inclusive loans is actually cancelled, and the bank loan order returns to the normal rhythm, which is also conducive to stabilizing the credit risk of small and medium-sized banks and improving the ability to support the real economy. The Pratt & Whitney loans previously benefited from the policy will need to repay the principal and interest after December 31, 2021. This part of the new financial pressure is mainly hedged by rolling refinancing. Moreover, the quota can be further increased if necessary.
Policy underpinning supports the development of small and micro enterprises. Give SMEs a bottom line with structural wide credit or small and micro policy ideas in 2022. It should be noted that after the policy exit, a few small and medium-sized enterprises with weak fundamentals may have the pressure of risk exposure. In addition, it can be expected that the growth target of inclusive loans may be increased, so as to dilute the overall risk of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Investment suggestion: retail banks continue to enjoy excess investment returns
A more active fiscal policy is expected to be accelerated in the first half of 2022, which is conducive to the asset side repair of the banking sector. Throughout the year, under the background of steady economic growth, loose credit margin is also conducive to the promotion of risk prevention and resolution. Retail banks will continue to enjoy excess investment returns, mainly based on two logics: 1) wide credit is conducive to the expansion of non interest business of retail banks. 2) Credit risk differentiation is good for low exposure retail banks. Based on this, we recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation will affect economic recovery; Weak credit demand; Policy changes
