Market review: plate overall decline, Baijiu, beer declined significantly last week, SW food and beverage fell 4.40%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased by 0.33%, the overall decline of the plate. In the molecular industry, beer industry dropped 3.57% last week, the Baijiu industry dropped 5.76%, the food industry dropped 1.26%, the dairy industry fell 1.65%, the meat industry increased by 1.83%, and the seasoning industry dropped 0.88%.
Previous views: continue the main line of stability recommendation, and optimize the leading and high prosperity track
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu: we have been focusing on the high-end liquor opportunities for seven weeks. We continue to push the high-end liquor sector, and high-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis, with the emphasis on Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers to the Baijiu plate and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The 2022 performance is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset.
Beer: the logic of structural upgrading remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive changes in Yanjing. We believe that the next 2-3 years will usher in a beta market in the beer industry, mainly due to the release of profit elasticity brought by structural upgrading or accelerated superposition of industry efficiency improvement. In the beta market, we suggest paying attention to the subject matter with significant marginal change, continuously recommending Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and paying attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . In addition, we suggest to pay attention to the marginal changes in Yanjing. In recent years, the company has continuously promoted the middle and high-end process through new U8, V10 and other series. At the same time, the internal reform is also continuously promoted. In the future, the improvement of structural dividend and internal efficiency is expected to support the release of performance flexibility of the company. We suggest to pay active attention.
Catering industry chain: the development of prefabricated dishes can be expected, and the leading performance of subdivided tracks is excellent. Benefiting from the chain development of food enterprises, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the cultivation of family consumption scenes by the epidemic, the prefabricated vegetable industry is developing in full swing; Among them, a series of high-quality sub tracks with broad prospects are coming to the fore, including the frozen baking track with low penetration, strong substitution and large development space, the fast-frozen hot pot material market in a steady growth period, and the b-end channel of prefabricated rice noodles with high standardization, low cost performance and large substitution space; After careful selection, we found a number of subdivision leaders with stable basic plate, clear development logic and high recognition. It is suggested to pay attention to quick-frozen food leader Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , frozen baking leader Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , b-end service focused Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and prefabricated dishes East China leader Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . At the same time, Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) continues to be recommended, mainly because Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) is the leader in China’s vegetable fat powder industry, and the diversified expansion of coffee, plant-based drinks and other businesses. Taking advantage of existing customers and channels, the coffee business is expected to grow into the second growth curve.
Dairy products: we expect that the price of raw milk may usher in a downward inflection point in 2022, but there is still uncertainty about whether the profit elasticity of dairy enterprises will appear this year. At present, the infant formula industry is in stock competition. With the enhancement of Z generation’s preference for domestic products and the acceleration of market clearing under the strong supervision of the milk powder industry, China’s infant formula market will enter a high-quality development stage in the future.
Suggestions: Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer, Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887)
Data tracking:
Baijiu: Moutai’s price slightly rose, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , national cellar price unchanged.
Beer industry: the output rebounded and increased, the price of imported barley increased, the price of glass decreased slightly, and the price of corrugated paper decreased
Dairy industry: the average price of fresh milk decreased slightly, the price of whole milk powder decreased, the price of skimmed milk powder increased, the price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the import price of corn decreased slightly
Risk tip: the consumption scenario caused by the epidemic is limited, the terminal mobile sales do not meet expectations, the high-end process is blocked, food safety problems, etc.
