Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. The market remains optimistic about the prospect of crude oil. In the early part of the week, the impact of the Omicron variant of covid-19 virus on the economy and demand was weakened, and investors’ concerns about the impact of the epidemic on demand were weakened. However, the Christmas holiday was approaching, the market trading was light, and the crude oil price rose first and then fell. In the late part of the week, the market sentiment was optimistic and boosted the oil price. Saudi Arabia believed that there would be a serious shortage of oil supply in the future. The crude oil production of several OPEC member states was interrupted. In addition, the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the EIA of the United States fell sharply beyond market expectations, and the international oil price continued to rise. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 78.72 (+ 4.89) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 75.92 (+ 4.98) USD / barrel.
PX: market shock upward. The supply and demand performance of PX market is acceptable, the market processing difference increases slightly, and the cost side support is relatively strong. On the supply side, there was no significant change in the overall supply of PX market during the week. Due to the poor profit of PX production, some factories have reduced the burden and production. On the demand side, the downstream PTA’s demand for raw materials is mainly on the high side, and there is no change of PTA unit in the week. However, due to the restart of PTA plant last week, the demand for raw materials increased. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 882.16 (+ 51.40) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 306.33 (+ 14.54) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 101.07 (- 10.16) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 69.70% (-0.98pct).
PTA: market focus is rising. On the supply side, there was no change of PTA device in the week, but due to the restart of PTA plant last week, the supply increment of PTA market was obvious. On the demand side, there was no obvious bad news in a short time. The construction of downstream factories showed an upward trend as a whole, and the terminal market was weak. However, near the new year’s Day holiday, the market was deserted. At present, the average weekly spot price of PTA is 4849.29 (+ 225.00) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is 19.28 (- 22.69) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 73.10% (+ 4.50pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 21760 (+ 12000) tons.
MEG: market prices rose by a narrow margin. Crude oil prices rose in shock, naphtha international prices rose slightly, coal prices fell steadily, and cost side support was acceptable. On the supply side, the overall negative performance, the inventory of East China port decreased slightly, the port delivery was poor this week, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. A set of restart device in China has priority product output, the commissioning device is still undergoing product commissioning, and the output this week increased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, the downstream polyester industry is reorganized and operated, and the pressure of high cost and high inventory is great. However, the production and sales are always relatively cold, the terminal weaving industry maintains stability, and the demand side continues to be weak and stable. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 4820.00 (+ 22.14) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 664000 (- 19600) tons, and the operating rate is 64.00% (+ 0.40pct).
Polyester filament: rising trend. At the beginning of the week, the trend of dual raw materials was warmer, the cost pressure increased, many polyester filament enterprises raised their quotations by a narrow margin, the downstream purchase intention was not strong, they waited for this week’s promotion activities, and the market shipment was poor. Subsequently, the international oil price rose sharply, driving the strong trend of the cost side. Polyester filament enterprises carried out the promotion, and the market rose and fell. Because this promotion was the last time at the end of the year and boosted by the cost side, the downstream mostly purchased in advance, with large production and sales volume, and the enterprise inventory was also alleviated. At present, the international oil price continues to rise and the cost side support is strong. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7240 00 (+ 127.86) yuan / ton, fdy7424 29 (+ 74.29) yuan / ton and dty8700 00 (+ 107.14) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is POY + 186.38 (- 48.57) yuan / ton, FDY + 43.21 (- 84.12) yuan / ton and DTY + 292.58 (- 62.31) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy17.00 yuan / ton respectively 80 (- 1.20) days, fdy21 50 (+ 0.5) days and dty23 50 (- 2.00) days, operating rate 80.40% (+ 0.00pct).
Weaving: the demand decreases gradually. Near the Spring Festival, due to the continuous poor demand of downstream weaving, some weaving factories are expected to reduce the load in advance. During the week, weaving factories have begun to return home one after another, and the weaving startup shows a downward trend. At present, there are only a few supplementary orders and orders next spring in China, the quantity is limited, and the demand side trend is weak. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 51.89% (- 2.56 PCT), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.50 (+ 1.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fell first and then rose. The raw material side operates at a high level, and the cost side price is adjusted at a high level after a small decrease. On the supply side, Xiamen Xianglu staple fiber device normally produced silk this week, and the staple fiber output during the week increased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is general. The new orders of downstream pure polyester yarn enterprises are generally in place, and there is a downward expectation of commencement. There is no positive support for superimposed interrupted demand. Yarn enterprises replenish moderately and just need to buy. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 6997.14 (+ 91.43) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 191.12 (- 72.74) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -2.30 (- 0.40) days, and the operating rate is 81.30% (+ 1.80pct).
Polyester bottle chip: spot supply is tight. On the supply side, the spot supply of polyester bottles and chips is still tight this week, and the raw material inventory of some manufacturers is only about 1-2 days. On the demand side, the foreign trade orders of mainstream factories are well received, and the current supply of goods is tight. Most of them are from distant months. The inventory of some traders is low. Near the end of the year, large beverage factories begin to purchase the supply of goods next year. The shipment price of the goods holders is relatively strong and the orders are received carefully. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 7778.57 (+ 142.86) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 842.51 (- 38.61) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 76.10% (- 3.90pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to December 31, 2021, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 166.31%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 28.47%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining unit is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon greatly interfere with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
