Key investment points:
Monthly topic: under the policy efforts, has the congestion problem of west American ports been effectively alleviated? At present, the main contradiction of high freight rates in the container shipping market is the serious decline of supply chain efficiency caused by port congestion. Facing the unprecedented severe dilemma of blocking Hong Kong and the supply chain crisis, the Biden government and the Los Angeles port authority put forward a number of emergency measures in November and December 2021. After the implementation of the policy, the number of stacked heavy containers in Los Angeles and Long Beach port (1) decreased significantly, especially those with a backlog of more than 13 days; (2) The average anchoring time of ships decreased slightly. Does this mean that the policy has gradually taken effect and the port congestion has been alleviated?
The improvement of some data of west American ports does not mean the easing of congestion. There are two reasons: first, the congestion has been transferred from the port to the sea. Two aspects can be reflected, that is, the ship moves to a place farther away from the port to anchor or float, and the container ship slows down; Second, ships began to disperse to other ports in North America, and the congestion began to spread around from a point in Los Angeles and long beach. Although the container accumulation and throughput of Los Angeles and long beach began to decline, at the same time, the throughput of other ports in North America began to pick up. The total number of input boxes is not reduced, but scattered in multiple ports. Under the background that the landside transport efficiency has not been improved, it is difficult to alleviate the congestion.
Supply chain is a typical complex system, which is affected by many factors and needs to be dealt with according to the actual situation at that time. When supply chain efficiency will recover and how long container freight rates will be strong, we need to wait to eliminate variables rather than predict.
Logistics Express: price increase in peak season, especially Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120)
Express delivery: e-commerce express delivery enterprises with the improvement of key recommendation pattern and the continuous realization of price increase logic - Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . With the tightening of policies to restrict low-price competition, the number of price adjustment nodes in the industry has increased, with remarkable results. In November 2021, the single ticket revenue of Tongda express increased significantly, opening a profit recovery channel. The inflection points of policy bottom and price war have emerged one after another. The development strategy of head enterprises has changed from cost differentiation to income differentiation, and pay more attention to internal fine management and the balance between service quality and market share. Looking forward to the new stage, express enterprises gradually stop capital expenditure expansion, supply side change signals appear, and the e-commerce express industry switches to the stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. It is optimistic that e-commerce express enterprises will open the space for profit improvement and cash flow repair. Focus on recommending e-commerce express head Enterprises - Zhongtong express, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Continue to recommend the high-end track Express brand S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) under the monopoly pattern. 2021 is a big year for SF's capital expenditure. The mismatch between capital expenditure and business demand leads to short-term pressure on the company's performance. However, with the ramp up of production capacity, the month on month repair trend of SF's gross profit margin since the second quarter is clear. With the promotion of the four networks financing project, the development of new businesses such as SF express and e-commerce express will continue to optimize production capacity and accelerate loss reduction on the basis of raising revenue, controlling costs and ensuring profits; On the other hand, with the end of the large capital expenditure cycle, SF is expected to steadily improve its profit margin under the background of capacity climbing and single ticket revenue repair.
Cross border Logistics: continue to recommend Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) benefiting from freight rate dividends and new business integration. Looking forward to 2022, due to the instability of cross-border supply chain, the prosperity of traditional freight forwarders is expected to continue. With its strong resource control, China trade deeply benefits from freight rate dividends. In the cross-border e-commerce logistics track, China trade can continuously promote M & A integration, improve end-to-end service capabilities, and build the competitive strength of cross-border e-commerce logistics track, which is expected to finally stand out and realize the logical switch from cycle to growth.
Airport aviation: the inflection point still needs to wait patiently, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity at the bottom
The epidemic situation in many places in China rebounded, the aviation demand was affected again, and the monthly passenger flow fell year-on-year. Affected by the multiple outbreaks of local epidemics since the national day, it is expected that the civil aviation business volume in the fourth quarter of 2021 will decline year-on-year in 2020. The impact of the current epidemic on the airport and aviation sector has evolved into a medium-term core variable, and the evolution of the epidemic determines the current stock price trend. Looking forward to the future, the recovery trend has been clear and the rhythm is difficult to grasp. After the epidemic prevention policy turns, the two sectors will lead the whole industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom opportunity.
Airport: there are deterministic valuation repair opportunities. Focus on Meilan Airport, the subject of China's only duty-free airport on outlying islands, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) with a valuation at the historic bottom. As a tax-free airport with excellent talent in China, Meilan Airport is expected to reach 40 million passengers in 2025 and the sales of offline duty-free stores will reach about 10 billion yuan. At present, substantial progress has been made in the nationalization of Meilan Airport, and the problem of suppressed valuation of the company is expected to be solved over the years. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) as one of the three major gateway airports in China, affected by the epidemic, the company Pb is still at the bottom of history. After the epidemic, the company is expected to usher in valuation repair and return to high growth.
Aviation: with dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. Continue to focus on recommendations α and β Both Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , repair in the short term, elasticity in the medium term and growth in the long term. Continue to recommend low-cost leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . The company is located in the subdivision track of thick snow Changpo, enjoying demand dividends, clear competition pattern and first mover advantage, which is expected to bring long-term excess returns to investors. With the improvement of China's demand, the valuations of the three major airlines have been repaired in twists and turns, but they are still at the relative bottom of the large cycle level. For the elasticity of supply and demand, supply constraints provide the basis, ticket price reform opens up space, and 2q2021's profit has been preliminarily verified, but the core variable is demand. As no clear signal of the turn of epidemic prevention policy has been observed, it is recommended to pay attention to the bottom layout opportunity at the current stage, and the recovery logic and flexibility logic need to wait patiently.
Centralized transportation: the epidemic situation repeatedly interferes with the supply chain, and the port congestion is difficult to solve in the short term
Since December 2021, the epidemic situation in many countries in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply, and the disturbance factors in the supply chain have strengthened. Affected by the Omicron variant virus, the newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and other countries have broken the historical record. The rapid spread of the epidemic may further exacerbate the labor shortage in the supply chain.
The main logic of the stock price rise in 2021 is the freight rate rise under the mismatch of supply and demand. The main contradiction of the mismatch of supply and demand is the supply chain disorder caused by port congestion. The influencing factors are: long-term: US port infrastructure and truck production capacity have reached the edge of short supply before the epidemic; Short term: ① epidemic situation; ② Port operation in 2022q1 import off-season; ③ The effectiveness of a series of US policies to save the supply chain.
There are two opportunities for centralized transportation in 2022: first, the mode of freight rate rise will transition from immediate to long-term association. At that time, the growth and certainty of the performance of the centralized transportation company will be improved to a certain extent. Second, at present, the short-term factors affecting the supply chain dominate the expected changes. If the short-term ①, ② and ③ factors on the mitigation of supply chain congestion are falsified next year, the valuation of the container shipping company is expected to be repaired to a certain extent.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Logistics Express: e-commerce express buying pattern and comprehensive logistics buying layout; Airport aviation: there are valuation repair opportunities in the airport, and aviation has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity; Centralized transportation: the epidemic situation repeatedly interferes with the supply chain, and the port congestion is difficult to solve in the short term. Maintain the industry "recommended" rating.
Key recommended stocks
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Meilan Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) .
Risk statement
In terms of the company, the failure of M & A, the bankruptcy caused by the rupture of cash flow, the passive and substantial dilution of shares caused by the issuance of additional shares at a low price, the positions of franchisees burst, the cost control was less than expected, etc.
Industry: business growth is lower than expected, major policy changes, intensified competition, industrial accidents, etc.
Macro aspects: large economic fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, large fluctuations in oil remittances, large-scale natural disasters, a new round of epidemic outbreaks, etc.
