Industry core view:
Last week (December 27, 2021 to January 2, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.60%, and the Shenwan food and beverage index fell by 4.65%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.25 percentage points, ranking 31st among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan. Food and beverage sector fell sharply, and the sub plates fell much less, especially in Baijiu. Market rumors Baijiu tax, we believe that the root cause is that the recent food and beverage sector has risen much, valuations are not cheap, so the profits of funds to end up switching other sectors. Next, we expect that the market will focus on the price rise of high-end and high-end Baijiu liquor, as well as the sales of public goods after raising prices. If the price can rise as scheduled, and the performance of public goods increases after the price rises, it is expected that the food and beverage sector will also show its performance. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu: Baijiu: high spirits have definite certainty, and the growth of the second high-end liquor is strong, and the investment opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end liquor plates will be optimistic. 1. 2) Beer: the long-term trend of high-end beer remains unchanged under the background of rising raw material prices, prominent short-term cost pressure and consumption upgrading. 3) Condiment: as a necessary consumer product, it has strong cost transfer ability, and the profit is expected to improve after the price increase. 4) Dairy products: the recent correction of the sector is more, but the long-term growth logic has not changed. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading segments of the sector.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu plate fell 5.93%, of which Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (-11.56%), Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (-9.58%) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (-8.18%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor increased slightly. In the past 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor was about 3300 yuan, which was at a high level. The price of Feitian bulk bottles decreased slightly, from 2770 yuan to 2800 yuan. Maotai’s expected revenue in 2021 is 109 billion yuan. On December 31, 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) issued the announcement on the production and operation of 2021. After preliminary accounting, it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan (including about 93.2 billion yuan of Maotai liquor and about 12.6 billion yuan of series liquor), an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : nominate Zhang Yu as the vice chairman of the company and appoint Liu Yang and Li Jian as the deputy general managers. On December 27, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced that the board of directors of the company agreed to nominate Zhang Yu as the candidate for director and vice chairman of the Fifth Board of directors of the company, and the term of office is the same as that of other directors; Liu Yang and Li Jian are appointed as deputy general managers of the company, and their term of office is the same as that of other senior managers. Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : a total of 992400 shares were repurchased at a cost of 119 million yuan. As of December 31, 2021, the company has repurchased 992400 shares through centralized competitive bidding, accounting for about 0.20% of the total share capital of the company. The highest purchase price is 128.50 yuan / share, the lowest price is 111.83 yuan / share, and the total amount paid is 119 million yuan. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : stop the goods in touqu, adjust the price system of Jiaoling liquor for 60 years, and implement equity incentive. On December 27, Luzhou Dacheng Luzhou flavor Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the notice on suspension of receiving orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) touqu series products. The document shows that the company has decided to suspend receiving orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) touqu series products from now on. On December 28, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar age liquor sales Co., Ltd. issued a notice. After the company’s research and decision, from now on, 100 year Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar age liquor
The group purchase price is adjusted to 468 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price is adjusted to 558 yuan / bottle; The recommended group purchase price of 43 degree cellar age wine for 60 years is adjusted to 448 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price is adjusted to 538 yuan / bottle; The recommended group purchase price of 38 degree cellar age wine for 60 years is adjusted to 428 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price is adjusted to 518 yuan / bottle. On December 29, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) announced that the granting conditions specified in the company’s restricted stock incentive plan had been met, and agreed to grant 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 incentive objects meeting the granting conditions at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share on December 29, 2021. According to the incentive plan, it is proposed to grant no more than 8834600 restricted shares to the incentive objects, accounting for about 0.6031% of the current total share capital of the company.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Condiments: Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : strive to build the company into a listed enterprise of characteristic condiments within 3-5 years. Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) in the institutional research, the company said that in the early stage, relying on marketing success, the company gradually moved from a regional brand to the national market, continuously expanded the company’s revenue scale, and has a strong gene for marketing innovation and business model innovation. Looking forward to the future, the company will continue to give full play to its innovative advantages around its main business and strive to build the company into a listed enterprise of characteristic condiments within 3-5 years. Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : it is proposed to establish a brewing food company. On the evening of December 30, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) announced that Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) planned to invest 50 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary Haitian Brewing Food Co., Ltd. in Guangzhou; It is proposed to transfer part of the existing shareholders’ equity of Zhejiang Jiusheng Camellia oleifera Technology Co., Ltd. through the wholly-owned subsidiary daidaitian (Wuhan) Food Group Co., Ltd., and then unilaterally increase the capital of Zhejiang Jiusheng Camellia oleifera Technology Co., Ltd. with a total amount of 475 million yuan to hold 67% equity of Jiusheng Camellia oleifera.
Leisure snacks: Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) : there is no price increase plan at present. Recently, some investors asked the “king of pickled pepper and chicken feet” Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) on the open interactive platform: “recently, many food stocks have raised product prices. Has Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) management considered appropriately raising product prices to deal with the rise of costs?” Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) replied that the company will deal with the rise of costs by strengthening internal operation and management and other comprehensive means. For the price increase plan, Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) also replied to investors’ questions in early December: the company has no price increase plan at present.
Dairy products: Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) : the innovative cheese base project was started, with a total investment of 800 million yuan. On December 31, the first Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) new innovative cheese base project of Chinese cheese was officially announced to start. After the completion of the new project, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) will have the largest cheese production base in China.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
