1. Favorable policies continue to catalyze the entry of photovoltaic into the golden track
At present, photovoltaic has become one of the lowest cost power sources and the main force to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization. Since 2021, China has successively issued a number of favorable policies, which is expected to rapidly increase the proportion of photovoltaic power generation. It is estimated that during the 14th Five Year Plan period and the 15th Five Year Plan period, the average annual new installed capacity of PV in China is expected to reach 96 / 182gw respectively, and the CAGR is 22% / 17% respectively; The average annual new installed capacity of global PV will reach 275 / 501gw respectively, and the CAGR will be 24% / 16% respectively.
2. Silicon supply and demand is still tight, and the profit of battery modules is expected to be repaired
Affected by the pace of production, we expect that the silicon material supply will remain in tight balance in 2022. The leader benefits from the cost advantage and rapid volume, and the performance is expected to grow high; After the accelerated release of new expanded capacity of silicon wafers, the supply is relatively loose, and the gross profit margin may drop somewhat, but there are still structural opportunities for large-size silicon wafers; With the decline of silicon material price, the certainty of profit repair is strong, and the leader is expected to fully enjoy the dividends brought by new technology; The concentration of component links continues to improve. The integrated leader has multiple advantages in production capacity, brand and channel, and enjoys profit premium in combination with battery technology reform.
3. The domestic substitution of inverter is accelerated, and the competition pattern of glass adhesive film is stable
The advantages of domestic inverters have been highlighted, and the share of high-quality manufacturers at home and abroad has accelerated. The proportion of tracking support in China is obviously low, and there is much room for permeability improvement in the future. The pace of glass production expansion is relatively fast and the supply is relatively loose. It is expected that the price will remain stable or decrease slightly, but the premium of wide version and thin glass will continue to exist. The pattern of one super multi strength of adhesive film is stable. EVA particles are still relatively tight in 2022, but leading enterprises are expected to ensure the operating rate by virtue of their supply chain management and control ability; In addition, with the release of industry demand and the support of the company's cost and share advantages, the leader firmly grasps the pricing power of the industrial chain, and the film price will still have strong support in 2022.
4. The whole county will promote the support of BIPV and distributed photovoltaic wind inlet
BIPV has outstanding advantages over bapv in terms of service life, aesthetics and waterproof effect. In the future, the market scale is expected to reach more than 100 billion yuan. Leading enterprises with experience in relevant fields such as Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) are expected to seize the blue ocean market.
In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the county wide promotion policy, which will effectively help the development of BIPV. In addition, the willingness of central enterprises to participate in the promotion of the whole county has increased significantly, which is expected to bring multiple support such as technology, resources and funds to the development of distributed photovoltaic. Under the background of accelerated implementation of the whole county plan, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jingke energy, Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) and other enterprises actively respond to national policies and are expected to benefit for a long time by virtue of their experience and advantages in power station development and management.
5. Investment strategy: the inflection point is now, embrace growth
The demand for terminal installation is accelerating and the industry has ushered in a demand inflection point. It is suggested to pay attention to the following main lines:
1) Battery module integration leader [ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ] [ Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ] [Jingke energy] with new technology support and strong certainty of profit repair;
2) Supply the silicon material faucet [ Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ] [ Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ] which is at the bottleneck of the industrial chain and has rapid and large-scale production;
3) [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ] [ Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) ] [ Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ] driven by photovoltaic energy storage two wheels;
4) Leading adhesive film enterprises with good pattern and strong long-term growth certainty [ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ] [ Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ];
5) Other links include high-quality faucets [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] [ Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) ] [ Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ] [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ].
