Event overview:
Event: according to the disclosure of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) Financial Research Center, the digital RMB (pilot version) app has been put on the shelves of major android app stores and Apple App Stores on January 4, 2022. According to the official introduction, the digital RMB (pilot version) app is the official service platform of China’s legal digital currency – Digital RMB for individual users. It provides the opening and management of digital RMB personal wallet, and the exchange and circulation services of digital RMB. We believe that this move sends a strong signal that the central bank’s digital RMB (currency) has entered a new stage of comprehensive pilot, and large-scale application and promotion are close at hand. The 2022 Winter Olympic Games may be an important display scene.
The digital RMB app is fully launched, releasing a strong signal
Recently, there has been constant catalysis in the field of financial technology and digital currency. In view of the “new regulations on QR code” issued by the central bank at the end of 2021 – the notice of the people’s Bank of China on strengthening the management of payment acceptance terminals and related businesses (Yin Fa [2021] No. 259), we have pointed out in our interpretation that while rationally looking at the supervision of QR code strength, We must focus on hiding the main line of digital currency. Combining the strict supervision of QR code in the early stage with the significant progress of digital RMB, it is not difficult to find the determination of regulators to strengthen the legal digital currency system and reconstruct the mobile payment pattern.
Count the four highlights, both the blueprint and the dark line of the timeline
Highlight 1: the pattern of seven major banks + two major payers is just right. From the perspective of operators, a total of 9 operators, including 7 banks and 2 Mobile tripartite payment manufacturers. At present, the six major state-owned banks of industry, agriculture, China Construction, communications and postal savings, together with the retail banking giant China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , can cooperate and manage to the greatest extent, help the central bank coordinate the circulation and dominate the monetary system. In addition, the network business bank (Alipay) and micro public bank (WeChat payment) also ranked among them. Judging by the participation of the three party payment giant Alipay and WeChat payment, the central bank’s supervision of the third party payment tools will also be more effective, and the payment pattern will be rebalanced under the leadership of the banking system.
Highlight 2: multi scenario applications are implemented as scheduled, and the operation space can be expected. A core question of the market about the digital RMB industrial chain is: where are the links that can carry out large-scale commercial promotion and profit? We believe that the answer is ecological operation. In the digital RMB app (pilot version), after registering and logging in, the app will actively ask whether it is allowed to connect other app (scenarios), involving multiple apps including didi travel, which just confirms the C-end operation logic. The boundary of the scene determines the ecological space, and the ecological space also determines the business space and mode. It is judged that this field may be a valuable industrial link. It is judged that the two types of entities under the banking system are likely to assist in participating in various scenario operations and share the change dividend together. 1) Develop leading banking technology subsidiaries, such as CCB Jinke; 2) Bank IT manufacturers that may benefit from cooperation, such as Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) .
Highlight 3: Hardware wallet should not be ignored, and pay attention to the interconnection of software and hardware. Hardware and corresponding NFC use guidance (such as “paste” and “touch”) highlight the role of hardware wallet, judge that downstream hardware machines and tools will also be subject to boom conduction in the future, and build an integrated payment ecology of software and hardware. On the whole, the new pattern does not subvert the business model of the payment industry, but the new payment terminals have the needs of upgrading and software compatibility. Judging that smart POS and ATM are the main payment terminals (from the perspective of merchants), the transformation needs bear the brunt, and the main beneficiary manufacturers are Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) , Xgd Inc(300130) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) .
Highlight 4: in addition to the 10 pilot sites, it is clear that the Winter Olympic Games is an important node. Over the past six months, the landing rhythm of digital RMB has been questioned by many people, and the saying that “thunder and rain are small” has been heard all the time. However, with the official launch of the digital RMB pilot app to the public, we believe that the preconditions for the full implementation of digital RMB have been mature, and the next stage will move towards large-scale application. We judge that the trend of accelerating in early 2022 is irreversible. Besides the 10 pilot sites, the Winter Olympics or important (exhibition) time points (there are clear plans in the app), It is suggested to focus from now on.
Investment suggestions:
Combined with the current scenario expansion process of the central bank, we believe that we should focus on the head bank IT manufacturers at this stage, which has both the certainty of bank side it transformation and the imagination space of scenario operation. We mainly recommend Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , and other beneficiary manufacturers include Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) . In addition, financial equipment manufacturers will also usher in large-scale transformation opportunities, Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) , Xgd Inc(300130) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) are expected to benefit.
Risk tips:
Policy promotion was less than expected, and the expansion of digital currency scene was less than expected.
