We comb the annual investment clues of social service retail sector for investors from four dimensions:
Social service sector:
① Recovery of the epidemic: hotels take the lead, followed by Chinese tourism, and outbound tourism remains to be seen. Since the epidemic, small and medium-sized single hotels have closed down and cleared up, and the same stores that benefit the leading hotels will accelerate the turnover and integration of single hotels into chains in 2022; China's epidemic situation is well controlled. Under the background of the improvement of vaccination rate and the expected availability of foreign specific drugs, we continue to be optimistic that China's tourism will continue to recover and improve in 2022; At present, the opening node of outbound tourism is still unclear. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes of overseas epidemic situation and policies related to outbound tourism. Recommend chain hotel leaders (Jinjiang + Huazhu + first trip), pay attention to Junting and recommend natural scenic spots ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) )
② Golden age of tax exemption: under the catalysis of the epidemic, the state will encourage the development of the tax-free industry. Hainan's policies are favorable and frequent, and the increase of tax-free licenses is favorable to further expand the cake, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) is expected to continue to enjoy the high dividend of the industry by virtue of its scale + supply chain advantages.
Retail segment:
③ The prosperity of medical beauty and cosmetics is high: with the improvement of consumers' awareness of the industry and the upgrading of consumption, the medical beauty track is in high prosperity, and with the clearance of parallel and fake goods under the background of stricter supervision, it will further benefit the licensed market and continue to recommend medical beauty leading companies; The cosmetics industry has ushered in the trend of efficacy, the product power of domestic brands has been continuously improved and the channels have been optimized, and the leading cosmetics companies continue to be recommended.
④ The benign pattern of diamond cultivation is expected to continue: the continuous expansion of the use scenario promotes the rapid growth of the demand side, and the supply side is still tight due to the supply restriction of the upstream press and the high-tech barriers in the blank production link. The head company will give priority to the supply of the press and have the technical ability to continue to recommend the cultivation of diamond upstream leading companies.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations, industrial policy risks, etc
