Basic conclusion
New year's Day data comments: this year's new year's Day holiday consumer market still continues the characteristics of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day, with short-distance travel and travel around the city as the main travel directions, and the performance of film box office, gold jewelry, ice and snow travel is more eye-catching. From the traffic situation, the number of trips by railway, highway and civil aviation decreased year-on-year. The southern provinces Guangdong, Sichuan, Hainan, Jiangxi and Guangxi that are less affected by the epidemic are the most popular.
The amount of consumption in some cities is still considerable, showing the resilience of consumer demand. According to the monitoring of Shanghai Tourism big data, Shanghai received more than 5 million tourists during the new year's Day holiday, realizing tourism consumption of about 12.5 billion yuan; The scale of offline passenger flow in 36 business districts in the city has recovered to about 90% before the epidemic. According to the consumption data of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, during the new year's day, the sales of various business enterprises under key monitoring increased by 18.8% year-on-year, and the passenger flow of 52 key business districts in the city increased by 35% year-on-year. In addition, business consumption under the ground lines such as Wuhan, Qingdao and Jiangxi is also hot.
Box office: the total box office reached the top three in history, and the film reputation did not meet expectations. According to the data released by the state film administration on the 4th, under the strict implementation of the epidemic prevention and control requirements that the attendance rate of cinemas should not exceed 75% and cinemas in medium and high-risk areas should not be opened temporarily, the box office of "New Year's Day" China Film Co.Ltd(600977) reached 1.02 billion yuan in 2022, second only to 2018 and 2021. From the perspective of word-of-mouth and data, consumers have a large demand for film viewing, and the lack of high-quality content shows that the effective supply of films in China and Hollywood is insufficient under the epidemic situation.
Ice and snow tourism has become the most popular theme on New Year's day. According to the big data of the same trip, hotels and scenic spots related to ice and snow tourism increased significantly during the new year's day. Among them, the hotel reservation volume around the ski resort increased by 140% month on month, the ticket reservation volume of the ski resort increased by 110% month on month, and the ticket reservation volume of ice and snow world scenic spots increased by 220% month on month.
Prediction of Spring Festival consumption: in combination with the epidemic situation and the latest epidemic prevention policies in various regions, we believe that the recovery of long-distance tourism market during the Spring Festival this year is still slow. Referring to the performance of consumer market in various holidays in the middle of the year, local consumption will still occupy the mainstream. It is suggested to focus on high-quality offline supermarkets and related key sales categories, such as gold jewelry, tobacco and alcohol, food and beverage, shoes and clothing, cinema lines, etc, At the same time, the fast-growing takeout fresh quick-frozen hot pot category, leisure snacks category, tax-free companies benefiting from the return of high-end consumption, peripheral tourism related companies, high-end hotels and parks also deserve attention.
We screened the current valuation level of stocks in the consumer sector, combined with the judgment of category change and prosperity in our previous report, as well as inflation expectations, we believe that some undervalued sectors in consumption can be concerned, such as baked and pre processed food, meat products, dairy products, footwear manufacturing, household appliances, gold jewelry, special paper, metal packaging, finished household products, etc.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the market of the consumer industry in 2022 and suggest to grasp the rhythm of marginal improvement and give consideration to valuation and growth. Combined with the valuation and fundamentals of various sectors of consumption, we are optimistic about: first, the companies expected to conduct a smooth price increase in mass consumer goods, such as dairy products leader, leisure food & quick frozen products leader, beer, large household appliances and sports shoes manufacturing; Two, strong short-term catalytic activity, medium term pattern and performance to determine the good high-end / second high-end baijiu. 3、 Companies with strong product innovation ability and grasp consumers' consumption motivation, such as clean electrical appliances, Chinese and foreign double driven outdoor sports related companies seizing the opportunity of the epidemic, channel + brand + product promotion gold jewelry companies, etc.
Risk statement
The global epidemic is serious, the economy is down sharply, policies and regulations are overweight, international trade policies are changing, etc.
