Market review of this week: from December 27 to December 31, 2021, SW food and beverage industry index fell by 4.65% as a whole, ranking the first among all Shenwan industry indexes, losing about 5.04 percentage points of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period, showing a relatively weak performance.
Net inflow of land stock link this week: from December 27 to December 31, 2021, the food and beverage sector had a net inflow of 543 million yuan, ranking the tenth in Shenwan industry.
Important data tracking: Baijiu plate: flying sky increased price, the eight generation five and 1573 of the national cellar price unchanged. Condiment sector: the prices of soybean meal and glass fell this week, and the price of white granulated sugar was the same as last Friday. Beer sector: this week, the price of aluminum ingot increased, the price of glass and corrugated paper decreased, and the price of barley was the same as last Friday. Dairy sector: the price of raw and fresh milk has decreased. Meat products: pork prices fell this week.
View of Industry Week: Maotai publishes the annual production and operation announcement and pays attention to the price increase and the process of dealer conference. Baijiu plate: Baijiu plate this week there are larger callbacks, disturbance factors are mainly several points. (1) experts suggested that Moutai and other high-end Baijiu should be charged with the luxury tax on tobacco tax, which would cause market concern. (2) the two major index funds of Baijiu and Baihua liquor were declared dividends in December 28th. Although the plate is weaker this week, the fundamentals of Baijiu are stable. (1) After raising the supply price of Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) raised the group purchase price and retail price of century Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar aged wine for 60 years to varying degrees on December 28. (2) On December 29, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released super high-end Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures). Then, on January 1, 2022, the company raised the price of new treasure Maotai liquor and aged Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15. Meanwhile, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released its annual production and operation on January 1. It is expected that the operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 11.2% and 11.3% respectively year-on-year, and the performance will achieve steady growth, which is in line with expectations. (3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) successfully held a dealer conference this week, proposing to unswervingly take the road of high-quality development, realize the “brand + channel” two wheel drive and continuously improve the brand value. Follow up sustainable attention Baijiu price increase and dealer conference process. In terms of the target, we should pay attention to high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568). In the secondary high-end wine, you can pay attention to Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799), etc; Regional liquor can focus on companies with greater recovery elasticity, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369). Popular products: this week Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) issued a price increase announcement, and the product adjustment range is 3% – 10%. In the environment of price increase, there are marginal improvement opportunities in the plate. Follow up, pay attention to the progress of plate price increase and grasp the marginal inflection point. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (603288), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (603027), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557), Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345), etc.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation, product price increase less than expected, channel development less than expected, intensified industry competition, food safety risk and macroeconomic downside risk.
