Resumption: the excess return is significant, and the performance of new energy power generation is bright. Since 2021, with the promotion of the "double carbon" target policy, combined with the promotion of market-oriented reform of electricity price, the launch of green power transaction, power restriction events and other factors, the market performance of the public industry has been significantly better than the market and has a significant excess return. Among the segments of the public sector, the new energy power generation sector led the increase. In addition, in terms of performance, the new energy power generation sector also achieved significant growth.
The dark hour of thermal power has passed, and the revaluation of new energy assets is in progress. The rise of coal price has greatly reduced the profit of thermal power sector. With the decline of coal price and the promotion of market-oriented reform of electricity price, thermal power is expected to usher in profit recovery. At the same time, thermal power enterprises have stepped up the transformation of clean energy, and the new energy assets of thermal power enterprises have been revalued. Although the revaluation of new energy assets of thermal power enterprises is already on the way, with the continuous growth of new energy power installed capacity of thermal power enterprises, there is still room for the revaluation of new energy assets of thermal power enterprises.
Scenery clean energy: deterministic growth and long-term prosperity. Policy support drives the development of Fengguang clean energy. In the future, clean energy will become an important source of energy supply in China, and the growth of the installed scale of Fengguang new energy is highly uncertain. In addition, the stricter dual control of energy consumption and the construction of energy storage system will help to improve the consumption level of scenery new energy and increase the income of green power enterprises.
Photovoltaic operators: the decline of module prices leads to the recovery of project yield, and the installed capacity is expected to achieve high growth under the background of 21 years' low base + policy driven. At the same time, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the battery continues to improve, helping to improve the efficiency of photovoltaic operation enterprises. In addition, the construction of roof distributed PV may be accelerated, and the market space of EPC and operation and maintenance service business is expected to grow further, which is good for distributed PV operators.
Wind power operators: the price of wind turbine continues to decline, the cost of wind power operators decreases, and the yield of wind power projects is thickened. The trend of large-scale wind turbines and the transformation and upgrading of wind farms drive the revenue of wind power projects while reducing costs. In terms of offshore wind power, the construction cost is reduced, and the trend of large-scale superimposed wind turbine is promoted. In the future, the cost of offshore wind power is expected to be further reduced, and the power generation efficiency of offshore wind power is expected to be improved, promoting the growth of offshore installed capacity.
The marketization of electric power has been accelerated to promote the efficiency of electric power enterprises. With the deepening of the new round of power system reform, the power market-oriented trading mechanism is gradually improved, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity continues to increase, which will gradually restore the commodity attribute of power, and realize the "rise and fall" of electricity price, which will help to promote the more stable benefits of power enterprises. As it is difficult to significantly reduce the fuel cost of coal power in the short term, it is expected that the market-oriented transaction price of some power consuming provinces in 2022 will still rise compared with the benchmark price, which will help to alleviate the pressure on coal power enterprises caused by the rise of fuel cost. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched. From the supply and demand of the green power market, the "environmental value" premium of green power may persist for a certain period of time, thickening the income of new energy operators.
Investment suggestion: Fengguang new energy has a high certainty of installed capacity, and new energy assets are still the core of the plate layout: 1) traditional power enterprises that actively transform new energy assets and still have large room for new energy asset revaluation [China Resources Power], [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] and [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]; 2) PV operators are optimistic about the market performance of PV operators in the past 22 years. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ], [ Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ], [ Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ] and [Ganghua gas]; 3) Cost reduction and efficiency increase is still the long-term trend of the wind power industry. Sea breeze is expected to break out during the 14th Five Year Plan period. From the perspective of growth rate, sea breeze elasticity is relatively better. It is recommended to pay attention to [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ], [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ], [ Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ] and [ Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) ]. The growth of the installed capacity of Fengguang drives the increase of energy storage demand. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the construction of pumped storage is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) ].
Risk warning: policy implementation is not as expected; The project progress is not as expected; Intensified market competition; Component prices remain high; Measure deviation risk.
