Key investment points
The cumulative wholesale from January to February was + 14% year-on-year. The sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense was + 1.49 million, with a year-on-year ratio of - 2.49 million (a year-on-year ratio of - 2.49 million in the narrow sense). Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance: in February, there were 1115500 traffic compulsory insurance in the industry, with a month on month ratio of - 10.54% / - 48.73% respectively. CAAC caliber: in February, the total production and sales of passenger cars were 1.534/1.487 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.0% / + 27.8% and a month on month increase of - 26.1% / - 32.0% respectively. Export: in mid February, the export of Automobile Association caliber passenger vehicles was 146000, with a month on month ratio of + 72.3% / - 21.0%, of which 48000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in February, with a month on month ratio of + 289.3% / - 11.5%. Looking forward to March 2022: we expect the overall output and wholesale of the passenger union industry to be 2 million vehicles respectively, corresponding to + 9.83% / + 8.81% year-on-year respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 170000; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be 450000; The industry as a whole is expected to have 1.55 million traffic compulsory insurance vehicles, corresponding to - 7.27% / + 38.95% month on month.
New energy tracking: the wholesale caliber of passenger cars, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in February was 21.79%, month on month + 2.82pct. According to the passenger Federation, the output of new energy passenger vehicles in February reached 351000 new energy vehicles (year-on-year + 208.1%, month on month - 18.7%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 317000 vehicles (year-on-year + 189.1%, month on month - 24.1%). The retail sales of new energy with the standard of traffic compulsory insurance reached 247000 units (year-on-year + 159.78%, month on month - 21.74%). In terms of new energy inventory, 21600 new energy vehicles were replenished through channels in February, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) , and 21800 vehicles were replenished through channels in February. By region, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in non restricted areas accounted for 79.75%, with a month on month increase of + 1.20pct. In terms of price band, the sales volume of 050000, 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000, 25 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 and above 400000 increased in February, accounting for 18.61%, 18.62% and 13.31% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 1.36pct, + 3.05pct and + 2.41pct respectively. According to the price, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased month on month in February. Except that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the price range of RMB 050000 was -0.13pct month on month, the penetration rate of other price ranges increased month on month.
Tracking level of market share of independent brands: in February, the market share of independent brands in the overall market / car / SUV market was 43.14% / 33.6% / 51.6% respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 2.7pct / - 1.5pct / - 4.3pct respectively; The independent market share of BEV / PHEV market was 79.82% / 71.80% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -5.25pct / + 9.17pct respectively.
Data level of key model inquiry: 1) in terms of new energy models, from the perspective of month on month growth, Weilai et7 performed well at + 137.05% month on month. Euler black cat's inquiry volume in February was - 11.62% month on month. From the perspective of absolute value, Hongguang mini and song plus new energy had the highest order volume in January. 2) In terms of fuel models, from the perspective of month on month growth, uni-v inquiry volume performed better month on month, with a month on month increase of + 282.04%. From the perspective of absolute value, the key fuel models with the best performance in February are Chang'an cs75 plus and great wall Haval H6.
Investment suggestion: the correction of the automobile sector has been sufficient, and we are firmly optimistic about the automobile investment opportunities in 2022. It is recommended to over match! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to alleviate + policy underpinning economy + release of rigid demand. China's passenger vehicle traffic compulsory insurance data is expected to continue to be positive in Q2 year-on-year, and the positive range of Q3 continues to increase.
2) the demand caused by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded by the market, and Q2 is expected to resume orders and delivery. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. Recommend [ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], pay attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. For the recommendation of the sector of parts and components for the sector recommendation [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) \ + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk warning: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations; The price of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
