From January to February, the social zero year-on-year growth rate was + 6.7%, and social consumption showed some resilience
The National Bureau of statistics released the total retail sales of social consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as “social zero”) from January to February 2022.
From January to February in 2022, the total amount of social zero in China was 7442.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate increased by 5.0 PCT month on month; Among them, the retail sales above the quota was 2723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and the actual increase after deducting price factors was 4.9%. By region, the retail sales of urban consumer goods from January to February were 6459.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 983.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. On the whole, driven by the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics, social consumption increased steadily from January to February. Among them, basic living consumption remained stable, and gold and silver jewelry performed well in optional consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to gold jewelry and medical beauty cosmetics.
In terms of categories, the mandatory categories remain stable, and the gold, silver and jewelry in the optional categories perform well
In terms of price factors, CPI in January and February 2022 was + 0.9% / + 0.9% year-on-year respectively (including food CPI – 3.8% / – 3.9% respectively). According to the category of social zero data from January to February: among the required consumer categories, tobacco and alcohol, beverages, daily necessities, grain, oil and food were + 13.6% / + 11.4% / + 10.7% / + 7.9% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was + 6.6pct / – 1.2pct / – 8.1pct / – 3.4pct respectively compared with December 2021, maintaining steady growth as a whole. Among the optional consumer goods, gold, silver and jewelry were + 19.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 19.7pct month on month compared with December. The industry showed a high boom in the peak season of the Spring Festival; In addition, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats were + 11.1% / + 7.0% / + 4.8% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was + 3.7pct / + 4.5 PCT / + 7.1pct respectively compared with December, which was significantly improved. In terms of service consumption, driven by the directional issuance of consumption vouchers in many places and the rapid development of catering takeout, the catering revenue from January to February was 771.8 billion yuan (year-on-year + 8.9%), and the catering consumption recovered well.
By channel, from January to February 2022, the online retail sales of physical goods were + 12.3% year-on-year, and the offline recovery was stable
Driven by the promotion activities such as “online annual goods Festival”, the national online retail sales from January to February 2022 was 1955.8 billion yuan (+ 10.2%), of which the online retail sales of physical goods was 1637.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total social retail sales, which played a significant role in driving the growth of the total social retail sales; In the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% respectively. In addition, in terms of offline channels, the operation of physical stores is also improving: from January to February 2022, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores increased by 3.0% / 12.8% / 2.1% / 10.3% / 5.3% respectively year-on-year, which was higher than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021, and the offline channels recovered steadily.
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading brands of cosmetics, medical beauty and gold jewelry
Overall, driven by the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics, the social zero data from January to February showed a certain resilience. However, due to the influence of “Omicron” since March, the epidemic has spread in many places in China, which may disturb the recovery of offline retail. We still need to continue to pay attention to marginal changes such as the epidemic and prevention and control policies. In terms of investment suggestions, focus on three main lines:
(1) cosmetics: under the logic of “large single product + multi-channel”, pay attention to the improvement of the leading competitive advantage of domestic cosmetics, and focus on recommending Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , and Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , etc; (2) Medical beauty: strictly regulate the development of the industry, pay attention to the leading medical beauty products with deep competitive barriers, and highlight Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ; (3) Offline consumption focuses on the gold and jewelry sector, focusing on Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) (fast expansion of force alliance), Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) (continue to promote the provincial representative model), benefiting the target Chow Tai Fook.
Risk warning: repeated impact of epidemic situation; The operating costs of enterprises have increased.
