Industry perspective
The fundamentals are strong, the bad is exhausted, and the bottom range highlights the value. However, the new energy vehicle industry chain is seriously divided. It is suggested to optimize subdivided industries and select individual stocks.
1) strong fundamentals: in the short term, the sales volume of electric vehicles from January to February is strong, the production scheduling of 2022q1 industrial chain remains at a high level, and the leading enterprises still grow month on month compared with 2021q4, such as Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , dangsheng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Shanshan and other operating conditions from January to February are eye-catching, and the high fundamentals are verified again. Establishment of long-term trend: no matter from the planning of main engine plants, the schedule of banning fuel vehicles in various countries, the carbon neutralization schedule, or the fuel consumption assessment in China / Europe / America, the trend of intelligent electric is clear, and the industry penetration is expected to accelerate and grow strongly.
2) outstanding performance price ratio: the “black swan” event promoted the upstream bulk to rise higher than expected and the fear of “stagflation” led to a steep adjustment slope and relatively sufficient correction. We believe that the current systemic risks may be released to a large extent, and the bad trend is exhausted. In terms of product price, nickel price is expected to return to the reasonable level of actual supply and demand, lithium price may fluctuate at a high level, and cost side constraints are expected to be eased marginally. The PE of multi link core enterprises is about 25-35 times in 2022, which is at the bottom of history, highlighting the investment value.
3) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about high nickel ternary, diaphragm, power battery and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Market resumption
1) industry level: this week, the new energy vehicle index / lithium battery index / charging pile index / fuel cell index / energy storage index fell by 5% / 4% / 4% / 6% / 3% respectively.
2) corporate level: corporate level: corporate level: corporate level: referring to the lithium battery index, referring to the lithium battery index, the top five of this week’s rise is Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) (- 11%), Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) (- 11%), Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) (- 11%).
Industry dynamics
1) industrial chain price: this week, lithium carbonate / LME nickel / cobalt were quoted at 502000 yuan / 48000 US dollars / 573000 yuan per ton, up 1% / 62% / 4% respectively. Lithium carbonate continued to fall short of demand, and the price remained rising. Nickel prices soared in the short term due to the impact of the Castle Peak incident; In terms of cathode materials, ncm622 quoted 385000 yuan / ton on Wednesday, up 2%, and lithium iron phosphate quoted 168000 yuan / ton, up 2%; In terms of electrolyte, the quotation of lithium fluorophosphate is 550000 yuan / ton this Saturday, and the quotation of electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 110000 yuan / ton, both of which remain stable; Diaphragm, 6 μ The quotation of wet base membrane is 1.4 yuan / m2, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, the middle end and high-end artificial graphite were quoted at RMB 52000 / 72000 / ton respectively, which remained stable. 2) Key industry trends: China Automobile Association released automobile production and sales data in February, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%; The loading capacity of power battery was 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.1%.
Company dynamics
1) Tesla: the price of the model rises again, and the prices of model 3 high-performance version, model y long-range version and high-performance version are increased by 10000 yuan respectively; 2) Weilai: listed in Hong Kong, with an opening market value of HK $267 billion; 3) China Innovation Airlines: it has officially submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise an amount of US $1.5 billion; 4) Byd Company Limited(002594) : the new model song maxdm-i is listed; 5) Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) issued the annual performance express of 2021 and the announcement of main business data from January to February of 2021, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) issued the annual performance express of 2021, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , etc. issued the announcement of main business data from January to February of 2021.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc.
Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc.
Recommended combinations this week: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) .
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
