Core view:
Events
The National Bureau of statistics released the latest retail data of social consumer goods. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 6.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods per unit above the quota was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 6.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment
The impact of covid-19 pneumonia on social consumption is mainly concentrated in the first half of 2020, especially in Q1. The growth rate of social consumption in a single month in the first seven months of 2020 is negative, until it turns positive and returns to the positive growth range for the first time in August; Correspondingly, affected by the base figure, the growth rate in 2021 showed a trend of high before and low after. Although there was a slowdown in the first half of the year, it maintained double-digit growth, and gradually decreased to less than 5% in the second half of the year. The growth rate in the first year of 2022 is similar to that before the epidemic (2019), which is basically in line with our previous prediction (that is, the growth rate of social consumption will further approach the level before the epidemic). Among them, the cumulative retail sales from January to February increased by about 468.9 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year and 836.2 billion yuan compared with the same period of 2019, basically returning to the stable expansion range, and this level (monthly average value of about 230 billion yuan) is significantly higher than the average level in the second half of 2021 (about 150 billion yuan). Horizontal comparison of historical data shows that before the outbreak (taking the 10-year interval from 2010 to 2019 as the reference), the cumulative total social consumption from January to February will increase by about 460 billion yuan on average year-on-year, and the specific scale fluctuates in the range of 310570 billion yuan; The recovery level at the beginning of this year has reached the historical central level. In addition, January February mainly includes two important consumption nodes: New Year's day and Spring Festival; According to the consumption data of the new year's Day holiday disclosed by the national key monitoring provinces and cities of the Ministry of Commerce, the overall consumption market on New Year's day has basically achieved a stable start compared with the three-day small and long holidays of the Mid Autumn Festival and may day last year; Although the Ministry of Commerce has not released the retail consumption statistics under the 7-day time dimension of the National Spring Festival Golden Week, it can be seen from the existing cross-sectional data that the growth level of this year's Spring Festival is basically the same or slightly higher than that of the previous 7-day small and long holiday (i.e. the November holiday in 2021); To sum up, consumption on New Year's day and Spring Festival this year has basically achieved a stable start. The current consumer market environment and policy environment are relatively positive and optimistic. With the further promotion of China's epidemic control effect and vaccine popularization, China's economy is gradually returning to the previous growth track, residents' consumer confidence and the vitality of China's consumer market have recovered steadily, In 2022, the growth rate of social consumption will further approach the level before the epidemic. In order to reasonably guide the expectation of the consumer market, combined with the 2025 development plan of China's consumer market in the "14th five year plan" business development plan of the Ministry of Commerce, we conservatively predict that the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in 2022 will be about 4.5% - 5.5%.
It should be noted that since the beginning of the year, there are still repeated outbreaks in various places. Especially after March, the number of newly confirmed cases in China has increased significantly compared with the previous period. According to the statistics of the Health Commission, more than 9000 cases have been confirmed recently (as of March 15, 2022), and more than 3500 cases have been confirmed in a single day on the 14th, including Jilin Province (Jilin, Changchun) Shandong Province (Qingdao, Zibo, Weihai), Shaanxi Province (Baoji), Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Dongguan), Tianjin and other places are more serious. Considering that some cities follow the instructions of epidemic prevention and control and gradually upgrade the management and control of offline stores that may gather, and large-scale home office and closed management in some areas may have an impact on local retail catering in the short term, in which supermarkets and online platforms are used as channels to buy residents' daily necessities, Its importance to the stability of people's livelihood can not be ignored.
Necessary items related to supermarket channels: from the perspective of absolute value scale, grain, oil, food, beverage, tobacco, alcohol and daily necessities have increased in scale compared with the same period in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Among them, grain, oil and food were dragged down by CPI, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 7.9%. Food prices fell by 3.8% in January and 3.9% in February. The decline was further expanded, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. Pork prices fell by more than 40% in two months. Beverages, tobacco, alcohol and daily necessities all achieved double-digit year-on-year expansion. Combined with the previous analysis of the epidemic situation, we believe that the growth performance of the mandatory categories is expected to be stronger in March.
Optional items related to department store channels: at the end of 2021, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats had been lower than the same period in 2020 for five consecutive months (August to December), and some months were even lower than the same period in 2019. The scale shrank. At the beginning of this year, the growth rate returned to positive, and factors such as the purchase of new clothes during the Spring Festival and the listing of spring clothes in succession may form an effective boost. The cosmetics industry as a whole is still in a high boom range; Combined with the hoarding attribute and gift attribute of cosmetics consumption, cosmetics consumption at the beginning of the year will be more concentrated on Valentine's day in February and women's day in March (especially the "38" time point with greater discount). The monthly growth rate in March is expected to accelerate compared with this month. The growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry increased significantly in this period, ranking among the top among all categories. The gold price has fluctuated in a relatively stable range since the second half of 2021. However, due to external factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the gold price has risen since February and has now exceeded the high level in one year. In addition, from the perspective of demand side, Spring Festival, Valentine's day and other time points are also the peak season for gold and jewelry consumption.
Durable goods related to professional chain channels: household appliances and furniture related to the real estate cycle. There are still differences in the growth performance in this period. Among them, furniture has become the only category with negative growth in this period, which is more affected by real estate. Referring to the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of housing construction area, completed area and sales area, it shows a similar trend with the growth rate of furniture retail sales. Household appliances continued the growth trend in the second half of 21 years, and the overall performance was stable.
Investment advice
The impact of the epidemic in 2020 on the retail industry is serious, and the overall retail market performance is differentiated, which is also differentiated corresponding to the recovery performance from 2021; After the beginning of 2022, the performance of each category basically returns to the normal growth range. From the perspective of categories, the anti cyclical advantages of essential consumer goods appear. Among them, the basic living consumption represented by grain, oil and food, beverages and daily necessities has a stable growth rate and strong toughness; In addition, the upgraded consumption includes the consumption of non durable goods (cosmetics) in offline channels, as well as the categories in offline consumption scenes such as business banquets and weddings (catering, tobacco and alcohol, gold and jewelry, etc.).
In terms of scale and volume, the retail sales of consumer goods above the quota increased by 9.1% from January to February, slightly better than the overall trend of social zero, which reflects that companies with relatively large scale and volume have stronger risk prevention and pressure resistance during the epidemic period and obvious advantages in maintaining business; However, the range of comparative advantage has narrowed. In the long run, it may return to the strong growth of units below the limit, which corresponds to higher business flexibility.
In addition, the epidemic period will have a far-reaching impact on consumers' consumption habits and consumption channels, and frequent online promotions will further improve channel performance. We maintain that the general trend of increasing online share year by year will not change. On November 11, the Ministry of Commerce, the central network information office and the development and Reform Commission issued the "14th five year plan" for the development of e-commerce, which defined the three orientations of focusing on e-commerce: connecting Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , connecting supply and demand, and connecting China's foreign markets, giving E-commerce a new mission to promote "high-quality development of digital economy" and help "achieve common prosperity".
According to the retail format of offline channels, from January to February, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in retail units above the quota increased by 3.0%, 12.8%, 2.1%, 10.3% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year. The development of the above business types is also basically consistent with our early judgment. As a relatively emerging and sunrise retail channel, convenience stores are in line with the trend of convenient and rapid consumption, and can also meet the basic and immediate consumer demand of consumers, so the growth rate is high; As optional channels, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores have been greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic, so the growth rate has recovered faster in 21 years, but in the long run, the growth of department stores, specialty stores and other formats is still under pressure; As a traditional and necessary consumption channel, supermarkets have stronger growth toughness. From the perspective of policy, the Ministry of Commerce studied and prepared and triggered the "14th five year plan" for business development in early July of 21, which puts forward expected indicators for consumption development from 2021 to 2025. The total social consumption is expected to be 50 trillion in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 5%; The national online retail sales will reach 17 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 7.6%. The plan will have a guiding impact on the recent development of commodity and service consumption. In March 22, the government work report proposed to promote the sustained recovery of consumption. We will increase residents' income through multiple channels, improve the income distribution system and enhance consumption capacity. Promote the deep integration of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption, promote the recovery of life service consumption, and develop new consumption formats and models. Improve the quality of products and services, strengthen the protection of consumers' rights and interests, strive to meet the needs of the masses and enhance the willingness to consume. In addition, the premier fully affirmed the role of consumption vouchers in answering reporters' questions, mentioned that "issuing consumption vouchers may directly stimulate consumption", and stressed the importance of restoring offline consumption, "Consumer demand is indeed weak, mainly offline consumption demand. You can imagine that there are many shops in the long streets of the city, which are bustling with fireworks. If it is closed, it will not be good luck, Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) life will be affected. Therefore, we support these industries with special difficulties, not only to make them survive, but also to let the people survive Our life has temperature, so that our economy can show more vitality ".
In the long run, the growth rate of social consumption in a single month will return to the average level in the early stage of the epidemic through the pendulum track, and the scale of the consumer market will continue to expand; At present, there may be repeated epidemics everywhere, so we think it is still necessary to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude and calmly judge the consumption growth logic behind the data. In this context, we will continue to maintain the two major themes of "digitalization" in the annual strategy of 2021 and "specialization and innovation" in the annual strategy of 2022, and focus on recommending manufacturers and channel brands with high business certainty and certain brand influence and certain ability of price guarantee and favorable price in combination with the requirements of keeping the lead and seeking progress in stability; In addition, taking into account the recent recurrence of small-scale outbreaks in many places, we believe that we still need to pay attention to investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries. The recommendations focus on Rainbow Department Store ( Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) . SZ) ( Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) . SZ), Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) ( Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) . SH), Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ( Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) . SZ) Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) （ Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) .SZ）、 Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) （ Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) .SH）、 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) （ Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .SZ）、 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) （ Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) .SZ）。
Risk tips
The overseas epidemic continues to exceed the expected risk and the risk of continuous lack of consumer confidence.
