Investment suggestions:
The total amount of social finance data was lower than expected, and the loan demand weakened. The weakening of credit data in February was mainly affected by the insufficient recovery of credit demand of the real economy, the growth rate of RMB loan balance fell for seven consecutive months, and residents' medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan in February, the first negative growth since data statistics. It was mainly affected by the decline of residents' mortgage loan demand and the outbreak of local epidemic, which affected the demand for self-employed loans. At the same time, the medium and long-term financing demand of enterprises is weak. Although the real estate policy has stabilized and the liquidity of monetary policy is loose, the demand of residents and enterprises has shrunk at the same time, and the wide credit transmission has not achieved obvious results. On the liability side, the growth rate of deposit balance increased by 0.6pct month on month, but showed structural differentiation, residents' deposits decreased significantly, and the deposits of enterprises, finance and financial institutions improved month on month.
In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the effect of wide money transmission and the repair process of credit demand. The government work report puts forward the goal of GDP growth of 5.5%, gradually implement the steady growth policy, strengthen the financial supply to new citizens, provide financial services for the financing needs of affordable rental housing, and expand the financial supply with high quality. In the long run, we still need to pay attention to the implementation of real estate easing policies and the steady growth effect of monetary and fiscal policies. With the gradual implementation of the policy, it will gradually improve pessimistic expectations, drive the repair of medium and long-term credit demand, and gradually transmit broad money to the real economy, resulting in the increase of the total amount of credit.
The fundamentals of the bank have been in a big year, with good performance and bad performance improved. Recently, the banking sector has adjusted. The overall closing of the sector rose by 1.01% in February, but it is weaker than the Shanghai stock index. The sector has fallen by 3.63% year to date (March 14). Last week, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) released the operating data for 2021, and the operating revenue and net profit achieved rapid growth. At the same time, from the perspective of the listed banks that have published the performance express, 12 listed banks have an operating revenue growth rate of more than 10%, 13 have a parent net profit growth rate of more than 20%, the asset quality has continued to improve, and the non-performing rate has decreased. At the same time, the current valuation level is at the bottom of history. With the gradual repair of credit demand, banks will benefit from asset quality and credit supply. With the superposition of fundamental catalysis, they are optimistic about the valuation repair of the banking sector. However, the differentiation of individual stocks will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to some urban commercial banks with low valuation, stable and upward profitability and excellent asset quality, as well as investment opportunities brought by the improvement of the performance of some joint-stock industries.
Risk warning: downward pressure on the economy; Industry operation differentiation; Repeated local outbreaks; Geopolitical conflict events.
