Industry trend: Although p-type is still the mainstream trend of the industry, the market share will reach 85% in 2020. Since the theoretical conversion efficiency limit of p-type monocrystalline silicon perc battery is 24.5%, it is difficult to significantly improve the efficiency of p-type perc monocrystalline battery. While n-type has the advantages of high conversion efficiency, low photoinduced attenuation and low temperature coefficient. It is expected that p-type will become the mainstream of the next generation battery technology. In 2022, the technology iteration of photovoltaic cells has officially ushered in a new era. Battery technologies with higher conversion efficiency such as TOPCON, hjt and IBC will move from the laboratory to the industrial chain. In the process of forming a virtuous cycle of production, large-scale effect, cost reduction and continuous production expansion, enterprises enjoying Technology benefits are expected to have the dual advantages of increasing market share and enjoying technology premium.
On this basis, we recommend three main lines:
Main line 1: at the time point when photovoltaic cells enter the period of rapid change, integrated module enterprises can support and promote the technology of the whole industry chain through effective collaboration between upstream and downstream. At the same time, more sufficient cash flow + technology reserves will also help enterprises continue to accelerate technological breakthroughs. Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) etc.
Main line 2: TOPCON link is unveiling the curtain of battery technology reform. Relevant manufacturers are expected to enjoy the technology premium and recommend Jingke energy; Focus on Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Liancheng CNC (Laplace), etc.
Main line 3: in addition to the technological transformation of battery chip, the supporting of other links of the industrial chain is also very important. The demand for n-type silicon chip is expected to accelerate. It is recommended that Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) ; N-type silicon wafer requires higher purity of thermal field, and Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , which has been shipped from the thermal field of n-type silicon wafer, is recommended; The new battery technology has a stronger demand for wafer slicing, so Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) .
Risk warning: fluctuation of upstream raw materials; The terminal demand is less than expected; The development of n-type battery technology is less than expected.
