The investment data is significantly better than expected, and the subdivided fields have good growth elasticity
From January to February of 22, real estate development investment / narrow infrastructure / broad infrastructure / manufacturing industry were + 3.7% / + 8.1% / + 8.6% / + 20.9% year-on-year respectively. The economic data in the beginning of the year was significantly better than expected. However, according to the cement data, the output from January to February was 199 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. The demand performance was poor or represented the delay of actual commencement. We think the commencement may be postponed from January to February; According to the social finance data, the medium and long-term loans of non-financial enterprises increased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 54%, and the demand for physical financing was weak; Looking forward to the future, with the superposition of external conflict fermentation and repeated internal epidemics, the sustainability of investment boom may be affected. We believe that under the background of steady growth, the sub regions such as Shandong, Sichuan and Chongqing, and the sub areas such as green power, affordable housing, pipe network, cold chain and major transportation are expected to show good growth sustainability and elasticity.
The completion of the real estate is under pressure, and the prosperity of major transportation and water conservancy is high
According to the transmission sequence of real estate, the area of real estate sales / land acquisition / new construction / construction / completion from January to February was – 9.6% / – 42.3% / – 12.1% / + 1.8% / – 9.8% year-on-year. From the micro verification, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 28.9% from January to February, and the new construction started in China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) 1-february was – 39.8% year-on-year, which was different from the real estate investment data. In the infrastructure segment, the investment in transportation, warehousing and postal services from January to February was + 10.5% year-on-year, of which the investment in railway transportation was – 8% year-on-year and the investment in road transportation was + 8.2% year-on-year. From January to February, the investment in hydropower and heating increased by + 11.7% year-on-year. From January to February, the investment in water conservancy and environmental public facilities was + 6% year-on-year, of which the investment in water conservancy was + 22.5% year-on-year, and the investment in public facilities management was + 4.3% year-on-year. Major transportation and water conservancy performed well, and the prosperity verified our previous judgment.
Cement production declined, and 22h1 demand is expected to improve
From January to February, the cement output was 199 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. Mainly due to the poor performance of the demand side, the average value of the overall cement shipment rate from January to February was 12 PCT lower than that of the same period last year, and the efforts of peak shift shutdown were strengthened. By the end of last weekend, the national cement shipment rate had reached 58%, up 3PCT year-on-year, and the demand had improved. Since the festival, the clinker has increased for 4 rounds, or 110 yuan / ton. The cement price started an upward trend in early March. As of last week, the national average cement price was 515 yuan / ton, 81 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year, and 63 / 41 yuan / ton higher than that in East China / Central South China respectively. Since March, the coal price has decreased month on month. At the current time, the cement profit in some regions may be better than that in the same period last year. We judge that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient. It is 22q1 or the low point of the industry. From Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, the industry supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized under the objectives of “double control” and “double carbon”.
The price of float glass rose slightly, and the supply and demand of the industry remained in tight balance
From January to February, the output of flat glass was 165 million weight boxes, up 2% year-on-year. Before the festival, traders prepared goods actively, and the inventory of manufacturers decreased significantly. The transactions in February were mainly in the middle and lower reaches, and the start of just need was relatively slow. Since March, the demand recovery continued to be weak. By the end of last weekend, the inventory of manufacturers had risen to 50.72 million heavy containers, up 22.12 million heavy containers year-on-year. In terms of price, as of the end of last week, the price of float glass in China was 120 yuan / weight box, up 4 yuan / weight box year-on-year. The overall increase in February was relatively large, mainly supported by the demand for goods preparation, but the short-term rigid demand superimposed the obvious price difference between regions, and the price may be weak temporarily. Pay attention to the order receiving situation of downstream processing plants and the digestion of social inventory. At present, the market value of glass leaders has been at a low level. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in tight balance. The downward space of unit profit of float glass is limited, and the performance of industrial glass and photovoltaic glass may be better than float glass.
Risk tip: marginal improvement of infrastructure and real estate policies is lower than expected; The demand for cement and glass is lower than expected; The impact of power rationing and other policies on the supply side of cyclical products exceeded expectations.
