Event:
The national energy administration and the National Bureau of statistics released the data of power consumption and energy production of the whole society from January to February 2021: the power consumption of the whole society from January to February was 1346.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, of which the power consumption in February was 623.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%; The power generation was 1314.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; The output of raw coal was 690 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The output of natural gas was 37.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%.
Key investment points:
Electricity: “steady growth” supported China’s sustained economic recovery. In February, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 16.9% year-on-year
Electricity consumption: from January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1346.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Among them, in February, the power consumption of the whole society reached 623.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. The reason for maintaining high electricity consumption is that the macro economy is warm. Since this year, with the force of steady growth policy, the main production and demand indicators have rebounded significantly. By industry, in February 2022, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries were 15.4%, 14.5% and 17.4% year-on-year respectively; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 24.8% year-on-year.
Power generation side: from January to February 2022, the power generation capacity was 1314.1 billion kwh, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1% in December of last year. The average daily power generation was 22.27 billion kwh, and the power production changed from decline to rise, which was significantly improved month on month. In terms of varieties, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased in varying degrees, except that wind power was affected by the high base. Among them, from January to February, wind power decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, mainly affected by the high base in the same period last year; Thermal power is still the ballast stone of power structure, and the power generation from January to February was 4.3% year-on-year, maintaining a steady growth; In terms of other major new energy power sources, hydropower, nuclear power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 8.2%, 9.6% and 6.5% respectively, with moderate growth in power generation and continuous optimization of energy structure.
Coal: self production continued to accelerate and import growth remained low
At the self production end, with the continuous promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, the raw coal output increased by 10.3% year-on-year and 3.1pct month on month from January to February 2022, with an average increase of 18.8% in two years; On the import side, under the background of the increase of self-produced coal, the import growth rate remained at a low level after changing from increase to decrease, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% from January to February 2022.
Gas: the growth rate of self-produced gas is steady, and the growth rate of import continues to decline
From January to February 2022, the natural gas production increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 4.4pct higher than that of the previous month, with an average growth rate of 8.8% in two years. Under the tone of “increasing reserves and increasing production”, the growth rate of the self-produced end was stable. On the import side, from January to February 2022, the import volume of natural gas decreased by 3.8% year-on-year and 8.4pct month on month, mainly due to the rise of the average import price of natural gas.
Investment suggestion: in the industry, the macro economy releases warmth, the power consumption of the whole society remains high, and the power generation turns from decline to rise. With the settlement of the shortage of renewable energy fund, new energy power operators are expected to benefit. At the same time, under the background of the implementation of the policy of controlling coal price + coal and electricity price transmission, the profits of thermal power enterprises are expected to be repaired. Maintain the industry “recommended rating”. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended that Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , and Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy; The target of nuclear power operation leader China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) .
Risk tip: focus on the company’s performance improvement is not as expected, the risk of continuous rise in coal price, the risk of electricity price decline, the risk of policy change, and some data in the report are calculated, which may be different from the actual data and statistical caliber.
