Core view
Macro: the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw materials emphasizes that some production capacity will only be reduced but not increased, and the Ministry of industry and information technology has published the catalogue of demonstration guidance for the first batch of new materials. This week, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry, proposing that in 2025, the production capacity of key raw material bulk products such as crude steel and cement will only be reduced without increase. At the same time, the requirements for emission reduction and production control of raw material industry will be more detailed. It is proposed that the carbon emission of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 5% and the energy consumption of steel and iron will be reduced by 2%. It is expected that the development of double high industries such as electrolytic aluminum will be limited. In addition, the guidance catalogue for the first application demonstration of key new materials was also released this week as the top-level design document of new materials. The new metal material industry is expected to usher in a “golden age” and there are many opportunities in the field of track segments. The implementation of RCEP will also promote the upgrading of China’s industrial structure.
Iron and steel: the reduction of crude steel has been basically completed, and blast furnaces of many steel enterprises plan to resume production one after another. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 1.57% month on month, and the consumption decreased slightly by 0.75% month on month. It is reported that the task of reducing crude steel has been basically completed. Many steel enterprises plan to resume production of blast furnaces one after another. It is expected that the actual resumption of production of blast furnaces in January will reach 30, and the steel price is under pressure.
New energy metals: the decline of subsidies has brought pressure on demand, but the tension between supply and demand of energy metals is difficult to ease in the short term. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 222500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 8.54% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 275000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 8.27% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt rose slightly by 0.97% month on month, and Co3O4 rose significantly by 2.61% month on month. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $20925 / ton, up 3.1% month on month.
Industrial metals: the trend of metal prices is divided, and the profit of aluminum smelting has rebounded. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 1.64% month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in September, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 88% in October, and decreased slightly by 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased slightly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 1.15% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum decreased slightly by 0.18% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang and Yunnan increased month on month this week, while the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month.
Kim: inflation expectations have warmed up, and the price volatility of precious metals is relatively strong. This week, Comex gold price rose slightly by 1.13% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased significantly by 1.68% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.52%, up slightly by 0.02pct month on month
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is recommended to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708, buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, bought), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated) and other lithium rich enterprises.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, not rated) benefiting from the increase of smelting processing fee and sulfuric acid price; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and high-end aluminum enterprises ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated), Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation(601702) (601702, bought).
Jin: it is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, not rated), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated)
Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
