Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased this week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 61000, up 8.9% month on month and down 2.5% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 37000, up 4.3% month on month and 1.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 0.1%, + 3.6% and + 29.3% month on month respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 19.6%, + 32.6% and – 49.5% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 14000, an increase of 4.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 13000, an increase of 7.9% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in the second and third tier cities increased by + 23.3%, + 2.9% and – 11.2% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 19.6%, + 10.9% and – 24.6% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses decreased, and the decontamination cycle decreased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.046 million units, a month on month decrease of 3000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 11.0 months, a month on month decrease of 0.7 months; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 577000 units, a month on month decrease of 2000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 7.9 months, a month on month decrease of 0.6 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 277000 units, an increase of 1000 units month on month. The decontamination cycle was 7.7 months, a decrease of 0.4 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 209000 units, a decrease of 10000 units month on month, a decontamination cycle of 8.9 months, a decrease of 1.1 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 91000 units, a month on month decrease of 2000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 6.9 months, a month on month decrease of 0.2 months.
Compared with last week, the overall land market fell in price, and the land premium rate increased. The number of all types of land traded in Baicheng was 476, with a month on month decrease of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 68.9%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 41.86 million square meters, up 27.1% month on month and down 65.9% year on year; The total land transaction price was 202.1 billion yuan, an increase of 337.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%; The average floor price of land traded was 4829 yuan / m2, up 244.2% month on month and 160.5% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 3.32%, with a month on month increase of 138.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.3%.
Investment advice
In December, the monthly sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises narrowed, and the sales of equity caliber was 767.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1% (previous value: – 42.7%); In the whole year, the equity sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 8.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%. The average sales target completion rate of top 20 real estate enterprises was only 87.4%, far lower than last year (101.4%). We believe that in 2022, the overall sales expectation of real estate enterprises will be more conservative, and the sales of most large-scale real estate enterprises will face negative growth. In addition to Ningbo, the three batches of centralized local auction have been completed. On the whole, the cooling trend of the second batch has been continued, and the profit margin is expected to improve. A total of 478 parcels of land were sold in 21 cities, with 53.62 million square meters of construction area and a total transaction price of 554.4 billion yuan. The land premium rate further decreased from 3.78% in the second batch to 1.77%, the peak transaction rate further decreased from 15.07% in the second batch to 11.23% in the third batch, the reserve price transaction rate further increased from 64.6% in the second batch to 76.7%, and the expected gross profit margin increased by 2 percentage points. From the perspective of sector investment, we believe that the beginning of the year is still a good investment time point, which is mainly based on: 1) although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the core contradiction between sluggish industry sales and declining profit rate has been fully communicated to the regulators, We have seen obvious positive signals in terms of policy and attitude. It is expected that the liquidity and administrative policies at both ends of supply and demand are expected to be marginally loose. 2) Fundamentals are expected to improve at the end of the first quarter. We believe that the key to the virtuous cycle emphasized by the current policy lies in the operation of the sales investment sales chain. At this stage, the sluggish sales has weakened the current willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land and start new construction. The decline in land transactions and new construction has reduced the number of subsequent market entry projects, and there is further continuous downward pressure on sales. The negative transmission relationship makes it impossible for the industry to operate healthily. We believe that with the arrival of the bottom area of Q1 sales, the investment may bottom out in Q2 and begin to improve, and the overall industry will gradually realize a virtuous circle in the second half of 2022. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunities in the real estate sector. We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sectors: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life, xinchengyue service and Baolong business.
Risk statement
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
