The National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the real estate market from January to February 2022. From January to February, the sales area, investment amount and new construction area of real estate were 157.03 million square meters, 144.99 billion yuan and 149.67 million square meters respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of – 9.6%, + 3.7% and – 12.2% respectively, and the previous values (January to December 2021) were + 1.9%, + 4.4% and – 11.4% respectively.
Sales remained sluggish, and the average residential price fell year-on-year for seven consecutive months. From January to February, the growth rate of sales area was – 9.6%, which was 6.1pct narrower than that of a single month in December 2021; The growth rate of sales volume was – 19.3%, with a decline of 1.5pct; The average sales price continued to decline, down 9.7% year-on-year, and the downward trend has continued for seven months. Previously, although some places issued certain stimulus policies on the demand side, the overall strength was relatively small. The liberalization of loan restrictions in second tier cities with signal significance only began in early March. In the absence of large-scale strong demand stimulus policies, the spontaneous recovery of market demand still needs time. In March, real estate enterprises generally reported that they had increased the amount of promotion, and the “little spring” performance of industry sales deserves attention.
Funds in place continued to decline, mainly affected by the decline in sales and the financing differentiation of different credit subjects. The year-on-year growth rate of funds in place from January to February was – 17.7%. Among them, the growth rates of Chinese loans, self raised funds, deposits and advance receipts and personal mortgage loans were – 21.1% / – 6.2% / – 27.0% / – 16.9% respectively, and the growth rates were + 10.5pct / + 3.7pct / – 1.1pct / – 8.9pct respectively compared with last December. Among them, the deposits and advance receipts related to sales collection and personal mortgage loans decreased with the market downturn. Related factors such as the continuous downturn of industry sales and the weakening of new investment and financing demand caused by the general shortage of industry funds. Under the background of credit stratification, the repair of industry financing still needs time.
The investment growth rate has changed from negative to positive in a single month. The continuous development of local auction and the construction of affordable rental housing will continue to support the investment. The growth rate of investment from January to February was + 3.7%, an increase of 17.6pct from December last year, from negative to positive, while the decline of land transaction price from January to February expanded to – 26.7%, the decline of new construction narrowed to – 12.2%, and the growth rate of completion changed from positive to negative to – 9.8%. The source of investment resilience may come from the support of land acquisition costs. We believe that the subsequent improvement of centralized land supply rules is expected to boost the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction. The construction of 2.4 million affordable rental houses in 2022 will form a certain support for this year’s development and investment.
Maintain the prediction of three core indicators. It is predicted that the growth rate of sales area, newly started area and development investment in 2022 will be – 5%, – 5% and + 1% respectively.
We are optimistic about the opportunities for high-quality enterprises in the real estate sector. The current market conditions and their competitive advantages will help them obtain the opportunity to significantly increase their market share in the medium term. A share recommended by a developer for a share recommended by a developer: a share recommended by a developer: a share recommended by a developer for a share of a share: followinga series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of a shares: followinga series of a recommended by a developer: a share of a share recommended by a developer for a developer to recommend a share of a share recommended by a developer: followinga series of a series of a series of a series of a number of a series of a series of a series of a series of a series of the (a) the; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Xuhui holding group and Longhu group. Property management recommendations include a shares: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ; Hong Kong stocks: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life. Green City Management Holdings is recommended by the agent construction standard.
