Power station replacement is of great significance and an important content of “new infrastructure”. The power change mode is a new energy vehicle rapid power replenishment mode that centrally stores, charges and distributes a large number of batteries through the centralized charging station, and replaces the batteries of new energy vehicles in the station, or integrates the functions of battery charging, logistics allocation and power change. 1) The power exchange mode has the advantages of high power exchange efficiency, reducing the impact on the power grid and prolonging the battery life, and has the congenital conditions for large-scale promotion. 2) Policy support: after 2020, the state and local governments have issued many policies to encourage the development of power exchange as a supplement to new energy infrastructure, and continue to issue standards to regulate the industry. 3) Industrial capital entry: Weilai and Aodong new energy are the main players, with few participants. After 2020, the investment of main engine plants will increase, the replacement of electric vehicles will increase, and the layout of replacement power stations will accelerate; At the same time, the battery factory cooperates with the main engine factory to start the establishment of a battery asset management company, further in-depth cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the power exchange industry chain, and is expected to open industrial space such as echelon utilization and battery recycling.
Power exchange operators accelerate the construction of power exchange stations, and the demand for power exchange equipment will exceed 10 billion in 2025. By the end of 2025, the total number of Weilai exchange power stations in the world will exceed 4000, including about 1000 exchange power stations in markets outside China; Aodong new energy plans to complete the construction of 10000 exchange power stations within 5 years; By 2025, the state power investment plans to increase the total investment scale by 115 billion yuan, 4000 replacement power stations and 228000 batteries. We estimate that the market scale of power exchange equipment will reach 12 billion yuan in 2025. At present, the power exchange industry is in the early stage of development, and the future growth rate may exceed our expectations.
Technical iteration and upgrading: in the early stage of power exchange, the box type power exchange is mainly used, and the battery is divided into 6-8 module boxes for separate power exchange, which has low efficiency, difficult operation and low degree of automation. With the technical iteration, a mature technical scheme for fully automatic whole battery pack power exchange is formed to promote the industrialization of power exchange.
Beneficiary objects: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , etc.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the progress of power exchange technology is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified.
