What is the Enlightenment of the rise of dental implants in South Korea?
The rapid development of dental implant industry in South Korea is driven by demand + supply + payment, and the localization of core consumables is the key. The penetration rate of dental implants in South Korea ranks first in the world, with 500 dental implants per 10000 people, with an average of 100 ~ 200 in developed countries. The ultra-high penetration rate of dental implants in South Korea is not only related to its deep aging and high per capita disposable income, but also benefited from the rise of local implant enterprises. South Korean local brands such as osstem and dentium were developed around 2000. The development path is consistent with the outbreak stage of dental implant demand in South Korea. By 2020, the localization rate of dental implants in South Korea has exceeded 80%. On the one hand, the rise of local implant enterprises has made dental implants popular rapidly and greatly improved the accessibility of payment; On the other hand, it also provides professional training for dentists to solve the problem of doctor supply. In 2000, only 2% of dentists in South Korea had dental implant licenses, and by 2012, this proportion had exceeded 80%.
What is the space of Chinese dental implant market?
The potential demand is strong, the two core constraints of payment ability and doctor supply are improving, and the scale of the terminal market is expected to exceed 100 billion. From 2011 to 2020, the compound growth rate of the number of dental implants in China was as high as 46%. The number of dental implants in 2020 was about 4 million (about 28 dental implants per 10000 people), and the penetration rate was still low compared with developed countries. Based on China's stock market, the potential market demand for dental implants exceeds 20 million, and the scale of dental implant terminal market exceeds 100 billion. The ability to pay and the supply of doctors are the core factors of the current low penetration rate. Under the background of brand sinking + intensive mining of implants, the accessibility of payment has been greatly improved; At the same time, due to the short learning cycle of implant dentists and the training empowerment of upstream manufacturers, the supply shortage of dentists is expected to be alleviated, and China's implant market is expected to usher in an explosion.
Is there an opportunity for domestic substitution in China's dental implant industry?
Implant, restoration materials and dental crowns have broad market space, and domestic brands have great prospects. 1) Implants: China's implant market scale (ex factory price caliber) is expected to reach 13.6 billion; At present, European, American and Korean brands dominate, and the domestic share is less than 5%. With the development of the second and third tier blank market, domestic brands are expected to benefit. 2) Repair materials: the total market space (ex factory price) of oral repair film + bone repair powder can reach 3.6-6 billion yuan. At present, Gai's products are dominant, and domestic brands are expected to make a breakthrough with the advantage of high cost performance. 3) Dental crowns: the aesthetic effect of zirconia all ceramic crowns is close to real teeth and has broad application prospects. We estimate that the market scale of zirconia all ceramic crowns for dental implants in China is expected to reach 15.2 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: under the background of accelerated aging process, the potential demand of China's dental implant industry is strong, and the two core constraints of payment capacity and doctor supply are improving. The penetration rate of dental implants in China is expected to increase rapidly. We are optimistic about the localization opportunity of the industrial chain under the outbreak of dental implant demand. It is suggested to focus on the relevant targets of the industrial chain: Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Allgens Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688613) , Xianlin 3D, Kontour(Xi'An) Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688314) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) .
Risk warning: the price reduction of implants is higher than expected; Market promotion is less than expected risk; Risk that R & D progress is less than expected; The measurement of market scale is based on certain preconditions and there is a risk that the hypothetical conditions do not meet the expectations.
