In February, the total premium of life insurance was differentiated year-on-year, and it is expected that the value of new orders will still be under great pressure
In February 2022, the total life insurance premiums of five listed insurance companies accumulated + 0.2% year-on-year (January 2022 – 0.4%), of which: The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 22.0%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 5.2%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 + 2.3%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -1.8%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) -5.0%. The total monthly premium in February was The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 18.7%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) + 14.9%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 11.1%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) -3.1%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -4.9%. In February, the total premium of life insurance was differentiated year-on-year. The year-on-year growth of China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) was under pressure year-on-year, and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) was expected to be driven by regulated model products, single transaction business and bancassurance channels. Considering the continuous promotion of transformation, low labor scale, repeated epidemic and slowing demand release, We expect that the value of new orders will be under great pressure year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the value of new orders of various insurance enterprises may be in the range of – 20% to – 30% year-on-year.
The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) single payment continues to drive the new single premium, and the new single premium of CPIC and Xinhua may be improved year-on-year
The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) life insurance and health insurance sector paid 3.17 billion yuan of new single premium in February, a year-on-year increase of + 330.3%, and 1.98 billion yuan of new regular premium, a year-on-year increase of – 3.8%, mainly due to the strength of PICC Health single premium business, contributing 1.78 billion yuan of new single premium in February, a year-on-year increase of + 7630.4%. The single premium continued to make efforts, driving the new single premium in February to + 84.2% year-on-year, an increase of 55.1pct compared with January, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to lead the industry. Considering the double-digit growth of total premium in China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 2 months, it is expected that the new single premium will be improved year-on-year.
The performance of auto insurance continuously exceeded expectations, and the market potential of low-cost standardized health insurance appeared
In February 2022, the property insurance premium income of the four listed insurance companies was + 15.7% year-on-year, up 3.7pct from + 11.9% in January, continuously exceeding our expectations. The property insurance premiums of each insurance company in February were: CPIC property insurance + 22.5% (January + 12.7%), Ping An Property Insurance + 17.6% (January + 8.2%), PICC Property Insurance + 13.4% (January + 13.8%), Zhong’an Online + 2.8% (January + 12.4%). We expect that the property insurance premium will continue to be higher year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous year-on-year higher than expected auto insurance premium and the better performance of accident and health insurance. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in February was 14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate increased for five consecutive months. It is expected to be driven by the increase of average car premium, the strategy of grabbing the first quarter of the industry, the optimization of market pattern and the increase of car ownership. The premium income of PICC Property Insurance accidental injury and health insurance in February was 10.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.8%, an increase of 0.7pct compared with January, and the premium income of Ping An Health in February was 730 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.0%. The market potential of low-cost standardized health insurance is still there.
The pressure on the liability side continues, and the industry transformation needs to face short-term performance pressure
According to the data disclosed at present, the pressure on the liability side continues. Due to the painful period of life insurance transformation and the low level of team manpower, the marginal improvement probability of the liability side in the short term is low. The industry transformation needs to face the balance between short-term performance and long-term reform and the transformation of the underlying business model. Enterprises with more firm transformation attitude may face greater pressure in the short term. At present, the impact of the liability side on PEV valuation is gradually passivated, the marginal improvement of the asset side may become the investment logic of the subject matter of life insurance in the next stage, and pay attention to the subsequent improvement of long-term interest rate and real estate chain risk. The growth of property insurance exceeded expectations and China’s property insurance benefited; In terms of life insurance, we recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is in the lead of transformation, and China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; The Hong Kong stock market fluctuates greatly.
