In March 15, 2022, the national health and Health Commission issued a notice on the issuance of the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). The key amendments are as follows:
1) optimize case discovery and reporting procedures. On the basis of nucleic acid detection, antigen detection is added as a supplement.
2) classify and treat the cases. According to the opinions of “patients with Omicron variant virus are mainly asymptomatic infected and light cases, most of them do not need too much treatment, and all of them will occupy a lot of medical resources in designated hospitals”, the case classification and treatment measures have been further improved:
① light cases shall be subject to centralized isolation management, and relevant centralized isolation places shall not isolate inbound personnel, close contacts and other people at the same time. During isolation management, symptomatic treatment and condition monitoring shall be done well. If the condition worsens, it shall be transferred to the designated hospital for treatment.
② ordinary, severe and dangerous cases and cases with severe high-risk factors should be treated in designated hospitals. Among them, severe and dangerous cases should be treated in ICU as soon as possible, and patients with high-risk factors and severe tendency should also be treated in ICU.
3) further standardize antiviral treatment. Two specific anti covid-19 drugs, pf-07321332 / ritonavir tablet (paxlovid) and domestic monoclonal antibody (ambavizumab / romistimab injection) approved by the State Food and drug administration, were written into the diagnosis and treatment plan.
4) adjust the release of isolation management and discharge standards. The new version of the diagnosis and treatment plan will be “two times of respiratory tract specimens nucleic acid detection negative (sampling time interval of at least 24 hours)” to “two consecutive New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection N gene and ORF gene Ct value is more than 35 (fluorescence quantitative PCR method, the limit value is 40, sampling time to less than 24 hours”), or continuously two times New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection negative. (fluorescence quantitative PCR method, the limit value is lower than 35, and the sampling time is at least 24 hours) “.
Comments
We believe that the changes of the new diagnosis and treatment plan are as follows: 1) Omicron has become the main virus strain, and asymptomatic and mild diseases are the main ones among those who have been vaccinated and infected with Omicron strain; 2) Centralized isolation management shall be implemented for mild diseases; 3) Ritonavir tablets (paxlovid) and domestic monoclonal antibodies (ambacizumab / romistimab injection) were written into the diagnosis and treatment plan.
We believe that under the current prevention and control strategy, it is possible to prevent the run of medical resources through “saturated reserve” and better respond to the new situation of epidemic prevention and control, including covid-19 therapeutic drugs, medical resources (hospital / shelter / isolation point, etc.), antigen / nucleic acid detection, covid-19 vaccine and other related links.
1. Covid-19 drug: focus on the domestic preparations with good effects and expected to be approved for listing earlier, as well as the related targets of covid-19 drug industry chain. Pf-07321332 / ritonavir tablets are suitable for adults and adolescents with mild and common types within 5 days of onset and high risk factors of progression to severe; Patients with Omicron variant virus are mainly asymptomatic infections and mild cases, and covid-19 oral medicine is an important treatment. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 preparation enterprises such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Geli pharmaceutical and Xiansheng pharmaceutical, as well as cdmo enterprises such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
2. Medical “new infrastructure”: in terms of hospital infrastructure, the configuration of infection control equipment, medical purification integrated system and life information support equipment related to epidemic treatment is expected to be accelerated, including Huakang medical, Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
3. Covid-19 vaccine: it is still an important means of epidemic prevention and control, especially for the elderly. On March 15, 2022, the joint prevention and Control Conference of the State Council pointed out that in the past year, about 65% of the severe cases in China are the elderly over the age of 60, and more than 60% have not completed covid-19 vaccination. Next, the National Health Commission will focus on promoting the vaccination of the elderly, especially the elderly over the age of 80. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) and other vaccine enterprises.
4. Antigen / nucleic acid detection. It is suggested to pay attention to those with better competition pattern and certain valuation support for traditional businesses, such as Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , etc.
Risk tips: covid-19 virus mutation risk, repeated epidemic risk, policy implementation risk less than expected, increased competition risk, covid-19 drug R & D less than expected, hospital infrastructure less than expected
