The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell seasonally, and the trend of expanding production and volume remained unchanged
In February, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) was 87473, and that of Tesla China was 56515, which was basically the same month on month. The sales volume of Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, gac-ea and Great Wall Euler were 6131, 6225, 8414, 8526 and 6261 respectively, which decreased by 31 ~ 53% month on month. The retail penetration rate of passenger cars was about 27.2% lower than that of last year. Since March, many car companies will launch new models one after another, and orders are expected to resume month on month growth.
Power batteries continue to be in high volume, lithium prices rise rapidly, and the performance of the upstream lithium industry may exceed expectations
In January 2022, the output of power battery was 29.66gwh, with a total installed capacity of 16.18gwh. Since last July, it has exceeded the loading capacity of ternary material battery for seven consecutive months. The production capacity has continued to tilt to lithium iron phosphate battery since last May. The sales volume of lithium iron phosphate battery in Q4 last year accounted for 66%, and the mainstream is inclined to lithium iron phosphate battery. The price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 500000 yuan. The supply of lithium ore will be tight in the medium term, and the price of lithium may remain high. With the high growth of demand for downstream power batteries and lithium battery materials, the growth of lithium mine target industry is prominent, and the scarcity of upstream lithium mine resources may make the performance of lithium mine sector grow faster than expected Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (1772. HK) had outstanding business performance from January to February this year. The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses in the first two months reached 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1000%, accounting for about 64% of last year.
The global semiconductor supply shortage intensifies, and the chip production cost is under pressure or leads to price rise
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the price of semiconductor gas raw materials, and the supply of automobile chips has been disturbed. In the short term, it is difficult for China to meet its own supply, and it is difficult to prolong the ordering cycle and increase the price of chips. The production of some models of Ford, Volkswagen and other brands is interrupted or even reduced, and small manufacturers with low demand for chip orders do not rule out the possibility of supply interruption. The proposal of the “two sessions” focuses on domestic semiconductor chips. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has triggered a rise in oil prices, which may promote the transformation of automobile consumption to new energy vehicles to a certain extent. The expansion of downstream demand is also conducive to stimulating the increase of domestic semiconductor chip demand. It is predicted that the supply and demand of chips will be in a tight balance in the first half of the year.
The cost pressure of power batteries and chips forced vehicle manufacturers to raise prices
Since the Spring Festival, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices Byd Company Limited(002594) Dynasty series, some models and dolphins increased by 3000 yuan, and pro increased by 7000 yuan; Tesla raised prices twice in March, and Model3 and modely rose by 24000 ~ 30000 yuan. At present, the factors that promote the rising cost of power batteries and chips in vehicle manufacturers are difficult to eliminate in the short term. The final cost allocation depends on the bargaining power of all links of the new energy vehicle industry chain.
Investment advice
We believe that the international situation has caused the new energy vehicle industry to be disturbed by the supply chain. The vehicle enterprises that have achieved large-scale mass production are the high-quality customers of the core equipment manufacturers, and the impact may be relatively small Byd Company Limited(002594) by the end of this year, the total production capacity may reach 3 million units, and Tesla Berlin has been put into operation. They have a high probability of achieving the established sales target this year, and they can partially hedge the rising pressure of production costs through large-scale mass production. According to the current price trend of lithium carbonate, the profitability of lithium mining enterprises is expected to remain high in the coming months. It is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) shares (1211. HK), Tesla (tsla. O) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (1772. HK).
