Key investment points:
Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was + 7.28% month on month; The output of the five major steels was – 2.15% month on month; The steel price was – 0.04% month on month. The supply is slightly reduced by the production restriction of the two sessions, but the impact cycle is expected to be short; Demand continues to recover slightly, but follow-up data should be paid attention to to verify the effect of stabilizing the economy; The inventory is at the lowest level in recent three years; The cost side sea freight rose seasonally, and the profit of steel mills improved slightly under the shock of steel price. Under the background of stable economy, the production restriction at the supply side may be loosened. We need to pay attention to the effect of advanced investment in infrastructure and the marginal improvement at the real estate side. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price – 3.07% / – 1.05% month on month; The current price of LME aluminum / the current price of Changjiang nonferrous aluminum was -9.84% / – 6.70% month on month. Aluminum: the situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased, and China’s supply side is constrained; The inventory end is low; The alumina production capacity at the raw material end weakened under the expectation of increase / recovery; The demand side is guaranteed under the stable economy, photovoltaic and automobile lightweight, and the short-term aluminum price is expected to run at a high level.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide was + 0.89% / + 5.16% month on month. China’s lithium supply and demand is tight and its inventory is low. In the short term, talison has a large volume in March and sqm in June. It is expected that the lithium supply will ease after March, but it is still tight. The increase of lithium price will narrow but remain high after March.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was – 5.43% / – 2.41% / – 1.32% month on month. Rare earth prices showed a downward trend, mainly due to: 1 Low market turnover at high prices; 2. The situation in Russia and Ukraine or expectations affecting demand. Under the support of low inventory, short-term prices may fluctuate slightly. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, risk of lower downstream demand than expected, risk of covid-19 epidemic spreading beyond expected
