Zhou’s views and investment suggestions
The growth rate of clothing retail is lower than that of social zero as a whole, which is in line with the prediction of weak recovery: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China increased by 6.7% year-on-year from January to February 2022, and the growth rate increased by 5pct month on month compared with December 21; From January to February, the accumulated retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles reached 238.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, and the chain speed was increased by 7.1pct compared with December of 21 years. Although the speed was temporarily increased in January due to the pre impact of the Spring Festival, from January to February, as a whole, the outbreak of multi-point epidemic in China led to the suppression of retail environment and consumption intention, and the abnormal weather in winter led to the dislocation of the sales of 4q21 and 1q22 goods of some brands, The performance of the industry is in line with our previous prediction of weak recovery.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Li Ning, who is the leader in product design and has superior brand potential, as well as Tebu international, which has a significant trend of store opening and expansion; It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) , etc. with prominent supply chain stability, orderly promotion of capacity expansion and higher than expected sales performance of downstream customers.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (from March 11, 2022 to March 15, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 7.43%, 7.31% and 7.49% respectively, and the textile and garment sector fell 8.04%, including the textile sector fell 7.27% and the garment sector fell 7.98%.
Raw material price: 328 grade cotton spot 22734 yuan / ton (0.12%, weekly rise and fall); American cotton Cotlook A133 45 cents / pound (- 0.11%); The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 1226 yuan / ton (8.24%).
Announcement of key companies: 1) Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) : Recently, the company released a 21 year performance express, realizing a revenue of 4.265 billion yuan, an increase of 70.52% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 465 million yuan, an increase of 287.95% at the same time; Deduct the non net profit of 446 million yuan, an increase of 363.32% at the same time. 2) Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) : Recently, the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February. After preliminary accounting, the revenue from January to February was about 355 million yuan, an increase of 38% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 48 million yuan, an increase of 136.69% at the same time. 3) DEA shares: Recently, the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February, realizing an operating revenue of about 796 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about RMB 229 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%. 4) Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) : Recently, the company released the announcement of main business data in 2021, realizing a revenue of about 2.3-2.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 17.2% – 22.3% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is about 310330 million yuan, a decrease of about 25.8% – 30.3% at the same time, and the deduction of non net profit is about 260280 million yuan, an increase of about 36.7% – 47.2% at the same time.
Industry news: 1) Monki, a brand of H & M, withdrew from the Chinese market. 2) Adidas announced its financial results for 2021. 3) Lcatterton once again laid out the outdoor field and acquired taxaoutdoors, an American light camping manufacturer. 4) Lululemon officially entered the footwear category and will sell the first women’s running shoe, blissfeel.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, rising labor costs in Vietnam and lower than expected price increase risk.
