Industry Overview:
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overall decline of transportation sector is obvious this week (March 7-march 11). This week, the aviation and airport sectors decreased by 7.13% and 6.61% respectively, which was more unstable compared with last week.
Aviation: the recovery of Chinese civil aviation passengers has been damaged, the air freight prices in Japan and Europe have doubled, the recent epidemic has spread more, and the demand for civil aviation passenger transportation has recovered or been damaged again. As of 24:00 on March 13, 2022, 1437 newly confirmed cases have been added in China, including 100 imported cases and 1337 local cases, involving Hebei, Guangdong, Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Jiangxi and other provinces and cities. On March 11, the National Health Commission issued the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which decided to add antigen detection as a supplement to nucleic acid detection to further strengthen epidemic prevention and control. It is expected that the repair process of airline performance may slow down in the first quarter of 2022.
Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the supply of global air cargo capacity may face great pressure, and the freight rate may rise again. At present, the air cargo price between Japan and Europe has doubled compared with that before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Since February 27, Europe and Russia have announced that they have closed their airspace to each other, and some European Asian and North American Asian routes have been grounded. They are re planning their application routes and trying to fly around Russian airspace. Taking the air routes between Japan and Europe as an example, the air transport trade volume accounts for about 30% of the total trade volume between Japan and Europe. Due to the cancellation of a large number of flights between Japan and Europe, the air transport between Japan and Europe has been delayed and the freight rate has risen sharply. According to Japanese media reports, the air freight price between Japan and Europe has reached twice that before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to the International Air Transport Association, air cargo between Asia and Europe accounted for 20.6% of global air cargo revenue in the past 12 months, and air cargo between Asia and North America accounted for 26.7% of global air cargo revenue. The closure of airspace will lead to the loss of transport capacity, and the global air cargo price may regain the upward trend.
Continue to pay attention to international route policies, and the aviation supply and demand structure is expected to reverse, or usher in the situation of simultaneous rise in volume and price. 1) The liberalization of international routes will bring about the recovery of international tourists and drive the recovery of overall passenger transport demand. 2) Under the influence of the epidemic, the introduction of aircraft has been greatly reduced, or will be lower than the growth rate of demand. 3) The reform of ticket price marketization has been continuously promoted, and the profit elasticity is expected to be improved.
Risk tips
(1) the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations (2) the opening of international routes was slower than expected (3) the global economic recovery did not meet expectations (4) oil prices continued to rise
