Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
In 2021, the performance of the general five rating was relatively flat, which was mainly due to the increase of shipments caused by the company’s de historical inventory. According to the price data of today’s liquor, the price of puwu has been in a weak shock below 1000 yuan in the first three quarters, which is difficult to effectively break through the 1000 yuan mark; In the fourth quarter, affected by the dealer’s return of funds and delivery of goods, there was even a wave of decline in the price. At the end of the year, affected by the expectation of price increase, the price returned to the level of nearly 1000 yuan. We believe that the weak rating of puwu is not due to the decline of industry prosperity or the low acceptance of winery products, but due to the basic settlement of historical burden and the change of delivery rhythm. On the one hand, at the time of the launch of the eighth generation general five, a certain amount of seventh generation inventory was overstocked in the channel. In 2021, this part of inventory began to be released one after another, and the increase of supply led to the downturn of wholesale prices. On the other hand, the delivery pace of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in 2021 is about one month faster than that in previous years. The advance collection of Q2 at the report end increases, and the shipment volume exceeds the expectation. The increase of supply side shipment volume is an important reason for the low rating.
In 2021, the price difference between the seventh generation and the eighth generation gradually converges, indicating that the inventory problem represented by the seventh generation will be significantly improved in 2021. From the price difference between the fifth, seventh and eighth generations in 2021: according to today’s wine price data, the price of the eighth generation was higher than that of the seventh generation in the first three quarters, but the price difference decreased from about 10-20 yuan to about 0-10 yuan; After entering the fourth quarter, the price difference between the two has tended to zero in most periods, and there has been no price difference since December 13. We believe that since 2021, the inventory of the seventh generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) backlog in the channel has been continuously cleared, resulting in the continuous convergence of their pricing trend. From the current convergence of their price difference, this part of the burden left over by history has been basically solved in 2021.
The remaining problems of channel inventory have been basically solved, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) pack light and the price transmission will be smooth. According to the channel research information, the company’s channel inventory problem has been greatly improved. At present, the dealer’s channel inventory level remains low, light loading and moving sales are in good condition. Under the condition of smooth channel sales, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be more comfortable in the delivery plan, and the autonomy of delivery rhythm control will be significantly improved. If the price adjustment policy is introduced, the acceptance of channel merchants and terminals will be higher, and the price transmission will be smoother.
Investment suggestion: in the long run, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the king of Luzhou flavor, has a strong consumption foundation and thick brand accumulation. At present, the management is stable, the tacit understanding is strengthened, the channel execution is strengthened again, and the old wine market helps the diversified development of product attributes. We are optimistic about the return of its brand value. It is expected that it may have a better competition pattern and a positive cycle of price rise in the 1000 yuan price band. We are optimistic about the company’s comprehensive reform in product, brand and channel management, and the company’s secondary entrepreneurship development. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 6.09, 7.15 and 8.30 yuan respectively, maintain the Buy-A investment rating, and give a 12-month target price of 290 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 35x in 2023.
Risk tips: macroeconomic and policy risks, food safety issues, downside risks of competitive prices, and market systemic risks
