Key investment points:
Sealed test is located in the downstream of the integrated circuit industry chain, and professional division of labor is the future development direction. IC packaging and testing is located downstream of the industrial chain and can be divided into two links: packaging and testing. At present, the production and operation mode of integrated circuit manufacturing enterprises can be divided into vertical integrated manufacturing (IDM) mode and professional division mode. Compared with the traditional IDM mode, the mode of detailed division of labor makes the cost more economical, the resources more focused, and effectively reduces the investment threshold of the industry. It is the future development direction of the integrated circuit industry. With the development trend of specialization and division of labor in the IC industry, more IC packaging and testing orders will flow out from traditional IDM manufacturers, which is good for downstream packaging and testing enterprises.
The scale of the global packaging and testing market is growing steadily, the capital expenditure of large wafer manufacturers is high, and the downstream packaging and testing manufacturers are expected to benefit. With the promotion of semiconductor industry transfer, human resource cost advantage, tax preference and other factors, the global IC packaging and testing capacity has gradually transferred to the Asia Pacific region, and the industry has maintained steady growth. According to yole data, from 2009 to 2019, the compound growth rate of the global IC packaging and testing market was 2.72%, and that of China was 16.78%, which was faster than the industry average; Affected by the epidemic, many global semiconductor supply chains continued to be tense or interrupted during the epidemic, and the supply continued to be tense or interrupted during the epidemic. Combined with the strong demand for downstream new energy vehicles, aiot and AR / VR, many semiconductor OEM factories had high capacity utilization. Based on the strong capacity utilization and continuous high demand expectation under the background of the epidemic, the capital expenditure of major global semiconductor manufacturers is expected to remain strong, and the downstream packaging and testing manufacturers are expected to fully benefit.
In the post Moore era, advanced packaging has become the driving force for the growth of the industry. Integrated circuits have entered the post Moore era. It is difficult to make breakthroughs in process technology. Due to the sharp increase in cost and technical barriers, the improvement speed of process has slowed down. Advanced packaging has become an important way to improve chip performance. In the post Moore era, SIP has lower development cost, shorter development cycle, flexible integration mode and greater design freedom. For the application market with more functions, higher frequency and lower power consumption requirements, including RF front-end for 5g communication, sensor chip for Internet of things, power chip for intelligent automobile, system level packaging (SIP) has more significant advantages. The downstream application field has increased dependence on advanced packaging, and advanced packaging enterprises have ushered in better development opportunities.
Investment strategy: the prosperity of the sealing and testing industry continues. As an important means to continue Moore’s law, advanced packaging has become the main increment of the global sealing and testing market in the future. China’s packaging and testing links have strong domestic competitiveness. They are optimistic about the profitability improvement of the industry brought by the continuous development of advanced packaging under the background of high prosperity of the industry for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) ( Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) ), Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.Ltd(002185) ( Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.Ltd(002185) ), Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) ( Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) ) and China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) ( China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) ) and other relevant enterprises.
Risk tip: the penetration of advanced packaging is less than expected, and the prosperity of the industry is declining.
