In February 2022, the demand of China’s three major airlines continued to rise month on month. In February 2022, Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines ask increased by 23.1%, 42.5% and 43.1% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, with month on month changes of – 6.3%, – 1.7% and + 0.5% respectively, and decreased by 52.5%, 41.5% and 36.4% respectively compared with the same period of 2019; The passenger volume increased by 25.6%, 44.3% and 45.4% year-on-year respectively, and increased by 0.4%, 11.5% and 10.0% month on month respectively, down 53.0%, 46.9% and 39.9% respectively compared with the same period in 2019; The occupancy rate was 64.4%, 64.1% and 68.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8, 2.6 and 3.5pct respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 4.8, 8.0 and 5.3pct respectively. In terms of structure, the demand of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines for Chinese routes continued to rise month on month. In February 2022, the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 0.4%, 11.7% and 10.1% month on month respectively; Based on the same period in 2019, the passenger volume of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines in February 2022 decreased by 42.8%, 36.4% and 29.8% respectively.
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) February saw a month on month pick-up in passenger traffic volume of Chinese routes In February Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 22, ask increased by 28.9% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 30.6% year-on-year and 3.6% month on month; The passenger volume increased by 26.6% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 26.9% year-on-year and 16.5% month on month. Based on the same period in 2019, ask decreased by 5.9% in February Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 22, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 16.9%; In February, the passenger volume decreased by 18.4%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 4.6%.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) February, the passenger volume of Chinese routes rebounded month on month Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 22 February ask rose 34.7% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes rose 34.8% year-on-year and decreased 3.6% month on month; The passenger volume increased by 41.6% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 41.4% year-on-year and 3.8% month on month. Based on the same period in 2019, ask increased by 18.6% in February Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 22, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 79.7%; In February, the passenger volume increased by 3.6%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 42.1%.
The passenger throughput of first tier airports and Chinese routes rose and fell month on month. In February 2022, the passenger throughput of capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Bao’an airport decreased by 81.0%, 44.7% and 57.3% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes decreased by 74.9%, 27.4% and 52.7% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years, with a month on month change of – 17.6%, + 8.3% and – 1.7% respectively.
Since February, there have been repeated outbreaks in many places in China, and China’s aviation demand continues to be negatively impacted. Statistics from the National Health Commission: from 0:00 to 24:00 on March 14, China reported 3602 new confirmed cases, including 95 imported cases from abroad; There were 3507 local cases. As of 24:00 on March 14, China has 11984 confirmed cases (including 8 severe cases). According to the statistics of CAAC, in February 2022, the total transportation turnover of the whole industry was 6.17 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year, returning to 63.9% in the same period in 2019; The passenger traffic volume reached 31.294 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, returning to 58.1% in the same period in 2019; The completed freight and mail transportation volume was 431000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and an increase of 14.5% over the same period in 2019.
Investment suggestion: with the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover. The revaluation of relevant companies is a deterministic event, and the short-term fluctuation of share price does not change the upward trend of airport sector; The national health and Health Committee issued the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). It is clear that light cases should be centrally segregated and not transferred to designated hospitals. We maintain the industry’s “add on” rating, and recommend 601 Air China Limited(601111) 35.
Risk analysis: the duration of covid-19 epidemic exceeded market expectations; The sharp decline of macro economy leads to the decline of industry demand; Sino US trade frictions continue to ferment, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly; Crude oil prices rose sharply
