Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Event description
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) it is estimated that the total operating revenue will be about 109 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
Event comments
The performance is in line with expectations and Q4 has accelerated month on month growth. The company issued the production and operation announcement in 2021. According to preliminary accounting, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 109 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, exceeding the target set at the beginning of the year by 10.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%. Quarter by quarter, the total operating revenue of 21q4 was about 31.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 12.4%, and the net profit was about 14.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.5%. The growth was accelerated month on month, and the profit growth was slightly faster than the revenue growth. By product, in 2021, the operating revenue of Maotai liquor was about 93.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the operating revenue of series liquor was about 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%.
Further enrich the product matrix and strengthen the brand image. Since the second half of the year, the company has made frequent market moves. Maotai 1935 is positioned at 1000 yuan, connecting and connecting Maotai liquor and Maotai Maotai Maotai series liquor; At the end of 2021, new Maotai treasures were released, belonging to the super high-end series. The product positioning is 15 between high-quality Maotai liquor and old Maotai liquor, which is conducive to enriching the super high-end and high-end product matrix and helping to upgrade the structure. In addition, the retail guide prices of Maotai new treasures and Maotai aged liquor 15 have been raised recently, from 100 / 1000 yuan to 4599 / 5999 yuan respectively. Non standard Maotai is expected to contribute volume and price in 2022.
The operation in 2021 exceeds the target at the beginning of the year, and the growth is expected to accelerate in 2022. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. The business objective of 2021 is to increase the total operating revenue by about 10.5% over the previous year, and the total operating revenue in 2021 exceeds the target at the beginning of the year. In addition, the performance is expected to accelerate in 2022. 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the expectation of marketing reform is strong: first, the new Commander takes office to convey development confidence to the market, especially to answer the questions about the reform of marketing system and price system concerned by the market. Second, constrained by capacity supply, the output growth of Maotai base liquor is slow from 16 to 18, and the bottleneck of volume growth in 2022 is expected to break through. Third, if Maotai does not directly put forward the factory price, the proportion of direct channel investment will be increased and the price increase effect of non-standard products will be prominent, which will help Maotai accelerate its growth.
Investment advice
In the short term, the setting tone is stable, the proportion of direct marketing channels is increased, and the price of non-standard products is increased. It will end smoothly in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the new commander will take office, and the marketing reform may be accelerated to become a new growth point of performance. In the medium and long term, we believe that the scarcity of Maotai and the safety cushion built by the moat with high channel profits have helped the company grow continuously. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.011 billion, 60.324 billion and 69.886 billion, and the EPS will be 41.40 yuan, 48.02 yuan and 55.63 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 50 times, 43 times and 37 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
There are risks
Food safety risk, the risk of sharp decline in high-end wine prices due to macroeconomic downturn, and the development of epidemic situation exceeded expectations
